金吾财讯 | 华创证券发研指，华润饮料(02460)2024年实现营收135.21亿元，同比+0.05%；归母净利润16.37亿元，同比+23.12%。分红方面，拟每股派发年度股息0.307元、成立40周年特别股息0.176元，合计分红率70.8%。该行指，公司包装水收入同比-2.6%至121.24亿元（H2约-8.7%），预计主要系增加费投应对竞争所致。其中，小规格收入同比-8.9%，受竞争加剧影响较大，公司加大力度拓展大规格水市场，中大规格/桶装水收入分别同比+8.6%/+0.2%。饮料业务受益于新品铺货、增加冰柜投放等实现亮眼表现，24年收入同比+30.8%至13.97亿元，占收入比重提升2.4pcts至10.3%，其中至本清润品牌销量增长122%。该行表示，公司纯净水赛道龙头地位稳固，生产端提效空间充足，25年业绩高增具备保障。同时，当前处于饮料业务培育的关键时期，关注第二曲线放量强化收入成长性，并提振规模效应。该行给予公司25-26业绩预测19.9/23.3亿元（原预测为20.4/23.6亿元），新增27年预测26.4亿元，对应25-27EPE分别16.4/13.9/12.3X。考虑到入通后流动性提升，上调目标估值至25EPE20X，对应目标价18.0港元，维持“推荐”评级。
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