Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

March 25 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% to a fresh three-week low on Tuesday on record output and forecasts for milder weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

Traders noted prices declined even though the expected return to service of Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas on Tuesday from an outage on Monday should boost gas flows to LNG export plants.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 7.4 cents, or 1.9%, to settle at $3.840 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since February 28 for a second day in a row.

Lower gas demand expected in coming weeks should allow utilities to keep adding fuel to storage this month.

Some analysts said gas stockpiles were on track to increase in March for the first time since 2012 and only the second time in history.

Gas stockpiles, however, were still about 8% below normal levels for this time of year after extremely cold weather in January and February forced energy firms to pull large amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 106.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from a record 105.1 bcfd in February.

Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through April 9.

With seasonally milder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will slide from 107.0 bcfd this week to 102.7 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.

Gas flowing to the eight big operating U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.7 bcfd so far in March from a record 15.6 bcfd in February as new units at Venture Global's VG.N 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG plant under construction in Louisiana entered service.

In Texas, gas flows to Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd export plant in Texas were set to rise on Tuesday after a lightning strike on a pipeline caused the plant to shut on Monday, according to LSEG data.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Gas traded around $13 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

In Canada, meanwhile, the Maran Gas Roxana C}KL7309692799 LNG vessel was heading for the 1.8-bcfd LNG Canada export plant under construction in British Columbia to deliver cargo from Australia to cool down the plant as part of its commercialization.

Once LNG Canada enters service, likely in mid-2025, Canadian gas exports to the U.S. will likely decline as Canadian energy firms have another outlet for their fuel and start selling more to other countries, traders have said. For now, the U.S. is the only outlet for Canadian gas.

Canada exported about 8.6 bcfd of gas via pipelines to the U.S. in 2024, up from 8.0 bcfd in 2023 and an average of 7.5 bcfd over the prior five years (2018-2022), according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data. That compares with a record 10.4 bcfd in 2002.

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao and Richard Chang)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C