Matrixport：流动性指标或难精准预测BTC走势，应关注加密原生推动因素或政策影响
PANews 3月28日消息，据Matrixport分析，全球流动性上升与比特币价格上涨的关联性存在一定局限性。以28家中央银行总货币供应量（美元标准化）衡量的全球流动性指标，尽管在视觉上与比特币价格走势相关，但由于时间序列的非平稳性以及规模差异，其预测准确性受到质疑。
分析指出，尽管货币供应增长可能对比特币市场产生滞后影响，但这一滞后时间并无强有力的理论支持。此外，比特币与纳斯达克的相关性近年来虽略有上升，但仍低于COVID期间60%的高点，表明比特币交易更多受自身规律驱动，而非完全作为科技股的代理资产。
Matrixport认为，比特币价格的广泛盘整可能延续，单纯依赖流动性指标预测市场走势或许不够可靠。相比之下，关注加密货币原生推动因素或具有直接政策影响的宏观变量（如支持加密货币的政治领导者）可能更具价值。尽管市场认知可能存在数学缺陷，但其广泛接受度仍可能对市场行为产生实际影响。
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