【汽车关税落地,避险情绪继续提振金价】金十期货业特约光大期货点评:3月26日,COMEX黄金高位震荡,报收3026.6美元/盎司,涨幅0.02%。国内SHFE金夜盘先跌后涨,报收708.84元/克,涨幅0.08%。1. 周三早盘尾声时传出美国总统特朗普最早当天公布汽车关税的消息,此后白宫新闻秘书确认周三将宣布对非美国造汽车征收25%关税。受此影响,美元指数续创三周新高。三大美股指最近四日首度收跌,科技股领跌。十年期美债收益率反弹、一度逼近四周高位。市场担心贸易战升级对美国经济的冲击,黄金避险属性再次得到加持,价格维持高位运行。2. 不过,今年拥有美联储FOMC会议投票权的圣路易联储主席Musalem周三表示,如果关税造成第二轮通胀效应,FOMC的按兵不动可能持续更久。降息预期短期降温,或抑制黄金冲高动能。3. 总体来看,黄金下方最有利的支撑仍是基于关税预期及地缘冲突带来的避险价值,今日美国将公布四季度GDP终值,可结合数据表现判断美国经济态势,若衰退预期加深,金价或仍存探涨驱动。
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