Equinox Gold Corp. (TSE:EQX) recently released a strong earnings report, and the market responded by raising the share price. However, we think that shareholders should be aware of some other factors beyond the profit numbers.
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In order to understand the potential for per share returns, it is essential to consider how much a company is diluting shareholders. Equinox Gold expanded the number of shares on issue by 41% over the last year. As a result, its net income is now split between a greater number of shares. To celebrate net income while ignoring dilution is like rejoicing because you have a single slice of a larger pizza, but ignoring the fact that the pizza is now cut into many more slices. You can see a chart of Equinox Gold's EPS by clicking here.
As it happens, we don't know how much the company made or lost three years ago, because we don't have the data. On the bright side, in the last twelve months it grew profit by 1,075%. On the other hand, earnings per share are only up 818% over the same period. Therefore, one can observe that the dilution is having a fairly profound effect on shareholder returns.
Changes in the share price do tend to reflect changes in earnings per share, in the long run. So it will certainly be a positive for shareholders if Equinox Gold can grow EPS persistently. But on the other hand, we'd be far less excited to learn profit (but not EPS) was improving. For the ordinary retail shareholder, EPS is a great measure to check your hypothetical "share" of the company's profit.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
Alongside that dilution, it's also important to note that Equinox Gold's profit was boosted by unusual items worth US$590m in the last twelve months. We can't deny that higher profits generally leave us optimistic, but we'd prefer it if the profit were to be sustainable. When we crunched the numbers on thousands of publicly listed companies, we found that a boost from unusual items in a given year is often not repeated the next year. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. Equinox Gold had a rather significant contribution from unusual items relative to its profit to December 2024. As a result, we can surmise that the unusual items are making its statutory profit significantly stronger than it would otherwise be.
In its last report Equinox Gold benefitted from unusual items which boosted its profit, which could make the profit seem better than it really is on a sustainable basis. On top of that, the dilution means that its earnings per share performance is worse than its profit performance. Considering all this we'd argue Equinox Gold's profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Equinox Gold at this point in time. For example, we've found that Equinox Gold has 2 warning signs (1 can't be ignored!) that deserve your attention before going any further with your analysis.
In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.
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