【券商聚焦】华泰证券指房地产市场结构呈现“哑铃型”趋势 反映“止跌回稳”效果初现

金吾财讯
26 Mar

金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示,今年“春节”假期后重点城市房屋成交明显修复,尤其二手房市场。二手房呈现“哑铃型”的需求结构特征,即购房者更加追求“改善”,同时注重“性价比”。该行认为“哑铃型”需求结构是当前购房需求的真实体现,反映“止跌回稳”效果初现。因为刚性需求对房价最为敏感,在房价下行周期多以观望为主。而“小阳春”期间来访量的快速上升叠加低总价房源的热销,在一定程度上代表刚性需求对房价预期改善,是去年“止跌回稳”政策效果的直观表现。此外,低总价房源热度回升有助于进一步激活成交链条,有望撬动改善置换链条的“杠杆”效应,即一套房源成交可能撬动多套房的成交,有助于维持市场热度。但该行认为后续仍需关注房价修复进展,去年三季度以来房价修复取得一定成果,但2月一线城市房价环比下降反映目前房价止跌回稳的根基尚不稳定,后续需要关注是否再有增量政策助力“止跌回稳”目标的达成。该行指,从“小阳春”成交结构来看,这次二手房量的回升不仅仅是春节后的季节性因素,也是去年926政策以来的实际成果,“哑铃型”的需求结构是当前购房需求的真实体现,后续需要关注刚需和改善的持续性。此轮该行看好重点城市区域市场的量价回升,以及在对应区域拥有储备或新获取资源的“三好”房企的估值修复,同时业绩与现金流稳健的物管公司亦有望受益于市场止跌回稳。

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