金吾财讯 | 招银国际研报指，金茂服务(00816)FY24收入和净利润分别同比均增长10%到30亿和3.72亿元，较该行的预期低4.2%和7%，主要受非业主增值服务（non-owner VAS）拖累，该板块收入同比下降36%，受制于开发商需求收缩，而业主增值服务（owner VAS）收入同比降7%受制于消费情绪低迷。Non-owner VAS毛利率下降12个百分点拖累综合毛利率下降4个百分点到23.8%。公司净利润同比增10%，归功于公司积极的降本增效带来销管费用4个百分点的好转。公司维持40%的派息比例不变，但似乎没有满足投资人日益提高的期待，导致业绩公告当日股价下跌近10%。公司表示后续会考虑向行业标杆看齐。公司面积增速显着好于同业，在管面积同比增长20%至1亿方，隐含1670万方的净增加面积，其中38%（630万方）来自母公司。公司预计25年母公司将交付约4百万方。该行注意到母公司中国金茂即将扭亏为盈，财务状况逐步好转且拿地强度显着提升，其FY24+2M25 拿地销售比高达42%，位列行业第二，这将在三方竞争激烈背景下为金茂服务提供有力的面积支撑。该行维持“买入”评级，目标价调整为4.87港元（前值：4.91港元），对应10x 2025E PE，股价在连续两日下跌后交易在5.8x 2025E PE，该行认为是合适的买入时机，因为公司估值可能进一步向同等业务规模的央企梯队靠近。
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