金吾财讯 | 中泰国际研报指，联邦制药(03933)2024年收入同比增加0.1%至137.6亿元（人民币，下同），股东净利润同比跌1.5%至26.6亿元，分别较预测低4.8%与7.8%。中间体收入同比增加14.8%，但制剂与原料药收入分别同比下降0.4%与5.9%。公司表示原料药工厂在疫情期间连续满产后去年下半年集中检修一个多月，导致下半年收入比上半年减少5.6亿元，制剂业务则是因为抗生素板块下半年放缓。该行指，由于抗菌药需求放缓今年6-APA市场价回落，相应下调中间体收入预测，预计2025-27E收入将维持在26-27亿元。该行也下调原料药收入预测，预计2025-27E收入为约62-64亿元。另外，该行预计短期内抗生素销售难明显回暖，但胰岛素与动保板块2025年起将引领制剂板块缓步回升，主因：1）胰岛素去年5月集采后下半年收入环比仍增加，表明刚需强大，预计未来仍将平稳增长。2）动保业务近年销售网络不断扩张。由于预计中间体、原料药、抗生素板块的销售短期承压，该行将2025-26E的货品销售收入预测分别下调8.9%、12.3%，但预计2025年将从诺和诺德获2亿美元首付款，后续还将有里程碑付款，因此最终2025/26E收入预测调整幅度分别为+0.6%与-11.1%，股东净利润的调整幅度为+24.8%与-7.4%。长远看与诺和诺德合作能夯实专科药实力，该行仍按6.5倍2025E PER定价，目标价14.50港元。由于股价近期上涨，评级调整为“中性”。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.