Odaily星球日报讯 Bitget 研究院首席分析师 Ryan Lee 指出，随着市场进入第二季度，比特币与以太坊正面临宏观和技术因素的双重考验。当前 BTC 在$80,000-$86,000 区间震荡，ETH 在$1,600-$2,200 区间波动。 此前特朗普提出的 25%关税政策（拟于 4 月 2 日起针对墨西哥和加拿大商品实施）引发市场对贸易战重启的担忧，加密资产与传统市场的联动性上升，BTC 与纳指的相关性已达 0.67，后续若美股走弱，或对加密市场形成拖累。 ETF 资金流也呈现分化：BTC ETF 持续吸金，而 ETH ETF 资金持续流出，显示机构偏好正向比特币倾斜。相关数据显示，若 ETH 从当前价格下跌 20%，将引发超 3.36 亿美元的清算，主要集中在 DeFi 借贷平台。ETH 对杠杆协议的依赖较高，可能导致连锁抛压，$1,600 成为关键支撑位，一旦跌破或加速下行。
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