Paramount Global's (PARA) Q1 financial results are expected to reflect larger declines in television affiliate revenue as well as "tough" TV media comps for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, UBS said in a Thursday note.

The analysts said they project Q1 results to show similar trends in core advertising compared with a year earlier. Q1 TV media affiliate revenue is expected to decline 9.2% year-over-year compared with a 6.7% decline in Q4 and TV media EBITDA is seen to decrease 36% from the year-ago quarter, followed by "improved declines" over the next quarters as cost-reduction measures start to produce tangible results, UBS analysts said.

The analysts also expect an 8.5% year-over-year decline in Q1 overall revenue, compared with a prior view for a 9% decline, and about a 34% drop in EBITDA to around $654 million, compared with a prior estimate for $585 million.

The analysts said management previously indicated that EBITDA growth would be weighted toward H2, with a slight overall decline for the full year due to the impact of the Super Bowl, political advertisements, core television declines, and improving direct-to-consumer losses. The analysts are now projecting around $2.9 billion in EBITDA for 2025, a 6% decline from the prior year, while free cash flow is expected to grow due to better working capital.

UBS has a sell rating on the stock with an $11 per share price target.

Shares were down 1.1% in recent trading.

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