Novo Nordisk's (NVO) Q1 2025 earnings are likely to miss consensus estimates due to slower-than-expected sales growth of its key drugs, Ozempic and Wegovy, and unfavorable foreign exchange rates, BofA Securities said in a report Friday.

BofA projects that Novo Nordisk's Q1 sales will total 77 billion Danish krone ($11.18 billion), reflecting a 17% increase year-over-year, while earnings before interest and taxes are expected to rise 14% from the previous year to 36 billion Danish krone, the report said.

Ozempic sales are projected to reach 31 billion Danish krone, about 6% below consensus, with prescription growth of around 25% year-over-year but constrained by previous gross-to-net adjustments, while Wegovy sales are estimated at 18.6 billion Danish krone, with US revenue at 14 billion Danish krone, declining sequentially due to reduced prescriptions and slight price cuts, while ex-US revenue is expected to reach 5 billion Danish krone, BofA said.

The full-year 2025 sales forecast is expected to be lowered from 16%-24% to 14%-22%, with a modest Q2 recovery constrained by the continued availability of compounded Ozempic and Wegovy until May.

BofA has lowered the company's fiscal year 2025 and 2026 earnings per share projections by a high single-digit to low double-digit percentage, the report said.

BofA has a buy rating on Novo Nordisk with a price target of 910 Danish krone per share, or $127.4 per ADR.

Price: 70.08, Change: -0.08, Percent Change: -0.11