MARKET WRAPS

Stocks:

European stocks fell on Monday as fears mount among investors that President Trump is weighing broader and higher tariffs ahead of an expected announcement later this week.

Trump on Sunday said reciprocal tariffs taking effect on Wednesday would start by targeting all countries.

"The president's comments over the weekend appeared to indicate that blanket new tariffs would be unleashed on Wednesday, a day he's dubbed 'Liberation' day," Hargreaves Lansdown said.

Meanwhile, the market will be eyeing the rollout of inflation data on Monday and the rest of the week.

Flash estimate German inflation data on Monday will precede Tuesday's key release of the eurozone inflation print.

Shares on the Move

Shares of Asian and European automotive groups were down after Trump said he didn't care if foreign carmakers raised their prices for U.S. consumers in response to new tariffs.

"I couldn't care less, because if the prices on foreign cars go up, they're going to buy American cars," Trump told NBC News on Saturday.

Economic Insight

The shadow of Donald Trump is haunting the U.K. economy , Pantheon Macroeconomics said.

Trump has earmarked Wednesday as the date for new trade tariffs, a move that could "spark a global trade war in which everyone loses."

Trump might pare back the planned trade duties but uncertainty will still weigh on business investment, and therefore on growth in the British economy, Pantheon added.

Barclays said the Bank of England could cut interest rates four more times in 2025, as U.K. labor-market data likely weaken in the coming months.

Forex:

The euro won't necessarily fall if upcoming German and eurozone inflation data come in lower than expected, Commerzbank said.

Lower inflation normally implies the European Central Bank should have good reason to cut interest rates at a fast pace.

However, the ECB "likely has a reputation among market participants for not reacting quickly to inflation fluctuations."

In this case, lower-than-expected inflation is euro positive while higher inflation is euro negative. Furthermore, U.S. tariffs and possible EU retaliatory tariffs could lead to higher inflation.

The German inflation data are due at 1300 GMT and eurozone print is out Tuesday.

The dollar fell after remarks from Trump added to uncertainty over his tariff plans.

Trump on Sunday said reciprocal tariffs taking effect on Wednesday would start by targeting all countries. Last week, he suggested these tariffs could be more targeted than previously anticipated.

Trump looks serious about making massive policy changes but the next important question is where his pain threshold is over the impact to markets and the economy, Deutsche Bank said.

"The rhetoric from the administration at the moment seems to suggest it's high but there is an extraordinary amount of uncertainty at the moment."

Bonds:

Ten-year Bund yields were expected to stay below 2.75% with a number of factors set to propel buys, Commerzbank Research said.

"Bunds are likely to remain underpinned below 2.75% in 10-year yields with inflation data and month-end flows also supportive and European Central Bank rate cuts becoming more likely."

U.S.-led risk-off remains the key theme as weak U.S. activity and high inflation data amplify U.S. growth concerns and tariff anxiety ahead of Trump's "liberation day."

Meanwhile, Eurozone duration could firm, pushing yields lower, benefiting from relatively cheap levels, said Morgan Stanley. "We think the next events in the calendar should favor some more richening given duration is currently trading at discount."

As for upcoming events, they refer in particular to flash estimate inflation data for Italy and Germany on Monday and for the eurozone on Tuesday.

Treasury and eurozone government bond yields fell as investors seek safer assets on tariff concerns, and ahead of key eurozone inflation data Monday and Tuesday.

"It is becoming increasingly evident that rising recession risks in the U.S. are also becoming a concern for Europe," CMC Markets said.

Energy:

Oil prices rose in early trade after Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil if the Kremlin prevented a deal to end the war in Ukraine.

Prices are also supported by Trump's threat to bomb Iran if it doesn't come to an agreement on its nuclear program, as well as concerns over tightening supplies amid U.S. pressure on Iranian and Venezuelan crude exports.

Still, market participants caution the broader outlook remains bearish as OPEC+ prepares to raise oil output and an escalating global trade war risks slowing economic growth and demand for oil.

European natural-gas prices rise in early trade amid concerns about low inventory levels as the new gas storage injection season kicks off on Tuesday.

Metals:

Gold prices hit a fresh record high on Monday as concerns over an escalating global trade war and an uncertain geopolitical outlook boost the yellow metal's appeal as a safe haven and inflation hedge.

Gold has gained more than 19% so far this year and its upward trend is expected to continue.

"Strong investment inflows, resilient physical demand, and elevated central bank purchases will keep gold on a strong footing," ANZ Research said.

Traders are now waiting to see the scope of Trump's upcoming reciprocal tariffs on major trade partners, which could increase inflation pressures and potentially slow economic growth globally.

EMEA HEADLINES

An April Pause Is an Option for the ECB, But Trump's New Tariffs Loom

The European Central Bank may be preparing for some stock taking, and a possible pause in its series of rate cuts.

Recent comments by rate setters point to a greater readiness to take a time out and consider their options as they contemplate a highly uncertain economic outlook, having already lowered the key rate by 1.5 percentage points.

AB Foods' Primark CEO Resigns After Probe Into Behavior

Associated British Foods said the chief executive of retail arm Primark, Paul Marchant, resigned after an investigation into his behavior.

The British conglomerate said the investigation followed an allegation made by an individual about his behavior toward her in a social environment.

Aston Martin Expects Tariffs to Weigh on Sales Volumes

Aston Martin expects U.S. tariffs to weigh on sales volumes this year and aims to raise 125 million pounds ($161.8 million) from an investment by Executive Chair Lawrence Stroll's Yew Tree Consortium and a sale of shares in its Formula One team.

The British luxury sports-car maker said Monday that it now expects expecting modest growth compared with last year, having previously forecast growth in the mid-single-percentage digits.

Volvo Car Brings Back Hakan Samuelsson as CEO

Volvo Car reappointed Hakan Samuelsson as its chief executive, with the Swedish carmaker facing strengthening headwinds from imminent U.S tariffs and intensifying competition.

Samuelsson, 74, served on the company's board from 2010 and was CEO for 10 years until 2022, leading the company's brand repositioning and overseeing the initial public offering. He will replace Jim Rowen on April 1, and serve a two-year term as the board searches for a long-term successor, the company said Sunday.

Norway Oil Fund to Buy Stake in RWE Wind Projects for $1.52 Billion

Norway's sovereign wealth fund is buying a 49% stake in two wind energy projects from RWE for about 1.4 billion euros ($1.52 billion), the German utility said Monday.

Norges Bank Investment Management-the world's largest sovereign-wealth fund, commonly known as the oil fund-signed an agreement to buy the stake in the Nordseecluster and Thor offshore wind projects, which are currently under construction, RWE said. RWE will remain in charge of construction and operations throughout the lifecycle of the wind farms.

GLOBAL NEWS

Global Markets Lower Amid Nervousness on Tariffs

European markets followed Asia lower at the open, with investors nervous about the specifics of widespread U.S. tariffs expected to be set Wednesday.

The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 1.3% in early trade in Europe, showing losses across sectors. Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 were both down 1.2%, and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 dropped 1%.

U.S. stock futures fall as Trump says he 'couldn't care less' if some automakers raise prices due to tariffs

U.S. stock futures slipped Sunday, ahead of a slate of wide-ranging new tariffs scheduled for this week and after President Donald Trump said he "couldn't care less" if foreign automakers raise prices because of them.

"I couldn't care less, because if the prices on foreign cars go up, they're going to buy American cars," Trump said in a Saturday interview with NBC News. "I hope they raise their prices, because if they do, people are gonna buy American-made cars. We have plenty."

Goldman Sachs Lifts U.S. Recession Probability to 35%

SYDNEY-The prospect of a radical escalation in the global trade war in coming days has nearly doubled the probability of a recession in the U.S. economy in the next 12 months to around 35%, according to Goldman Sachs.

Ahead of the Trump administration's so-called "liberation day" on Tuesday, which will clarify the extent of U.S. tariff actions and spur likely reprisals from other countries, Goldman Sachs also lifted its forecast for U.S. inflation this year. Goldman said it now expects three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025.

China PMIs Show Some Signs of Economic Green Shoots Ahead of Tariffs

Activity in China's vast manufacturing sector expanded at the fastest pace in a year in March, sending another sign of green shoots in the world's second-largest economy as policymakers brace for more U.S. tariffs this week.

The official manufacturing purchasing managers index for March came in at 50.5, the National Bureau of Statistics said Monday. That beat February's 50.2 as well as the 50.4 tipped by a Wall Street Journal poll of economists. A reading above 50 suggests an expansion in activity while one below suggests contraction.

Mike Waltz Is Losing Support Inside the White House

WASHINGTON-President Trump has decided for now not to fire his national security adviser over the revelation that he included a journalist on a group text chat to discuss and execute a military strike, but the damage to Mike Waltz's reputation has put him on shaky ground in the White House, senior U.S. officials said.

Despite repeated messages of support by Trump, Waltz has lost sway with the president and the backing of senior aides within the White House, officials said, just as the administration struggles to broker peace deals and faces the threat of further war in the Middle East.

Trump Expresses Anger at Putin as Ukraine Talks Make Little Progress

President Trump threatened new economic penalties on Russia and said he was angered by Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent comments, escalating his rhetoric as talks have resulted in little progress toward a real cease-fire in Ukraine.

On Friday, Putin called for "interim governance" in Ukraine under the auspices of the United Nations, which would essentially push out Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Write to don.forbes@wsj.com

Write to us at newsletters@dowjones.com

We offer an enhanced version of this briefing that is optimized for viewing on mobile devices and sent directly to your email inbox. If you would like to sign up, please go to https://newsplus.wsj.com/subscriptions.

This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 31, 2025 04:59 ET (08:59 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.