MARKET WRAPS

Watch For:

CPI data for Germany, Bavaria, North Rhine Westphalia, Saxony, Brandenburg, Hesse, Baden-Wurttemberg; U.K. money and credit

Opening Call:

European stock futures fell early Monday, tracking Asian stock benchmarks' declines. The dollar and Treasury yields fell; oil futures declined; while gold advanced.

Equities:

Stock futures point to drops at the start of the week in Europe, tracking a selloff in Asian markets amid persistent concerns about worsening business conditions.

President Trump spent most of last week playing down expectations for his reciprocal tariff plan on April 2. But in recent days Trump has pushed his team to be more aggressive, The Wall Street Journal reported, encouraging them to devise plans that would apply higher rates of tariffs on a broader set of countries.

Trump reinforced that narrative on Sunday night, saying he would target "essentially all" of U.S. trading partners with tariffs of some kind.

The average U.S. tariff rate in 2025 is likely to rise 15 percentage points, 5 percentage points more than previously expected, according to Goldman Sachs forecasts.

"We continue to believe the risk from April 2 tariffs is greater than many market participants have previously assumed," GS said.

Forex:

The dollar could strengthen this week as Trump announces reciprocal tariffs this week, alongside a range of other U.S. tariffs scheduled to take effect, including on autos, lumber and on countries that buy oil from Venezuela, Commonwealth Bank of Australia said.

"A ratcheting up of the trade war, especially with retaliation, will dampen the global economic outlook and cause a flight to safety into the USD," CBA said.

Bonds:

Tariffs and policy uncertainty have damaged confidence and slowed activity. Barclays downgrades its global growth forecast to 2.9% in 2025, slowing from 3.3% in 2024.

If governments course-correct, there might be some upside to forecasts, said Ajay Rajadhyaksha, head of rates and securitized products research at Barclays in New York.

Barclays now favors core fixed income over global equities for the first time in many quarters.

Energy:

Oil futures were mixed in Asia, but may be weighed by looming OPEC+ production increase. OPEC+ has announced that it would gradually reduce its voluntary production cuts from this week, Commerzbank said.

This "de facto" increase in oil supply will probably take center stage this week and weigh on oil prices, even though there have been worries over future supply shortage, the bank added.

Metals:

Gold edged higher early Monday, supported by looming U.S. tariffs. "Gold is in beast mode as Liberation Day approaches," Pepperstone's Ahmad Assiri said.

The precious metal's recent "surge thrives on tariff uncertainties, rising inflation alarms, and nagging fears of a looming economic slowdown," he added.

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Weak risk appetite amid mounting trade tensions weighed on sentiment across the base-metal sector, said ANZ. However, expectations that the Trump administration will announce a copper-specific levy in coming weeks is a positive factor for U.S. copper prices, ANZ noted.

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Iron ore futures fell amid cautious sentiment after a recent rally. Investors are bracing for Trump's reciprocal tariffs this week.

China's macro environment lacks trends that could improve the market's risk appetite, Nanhua Futures said.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Trump Team Weighs Broader, Higher Tariffs

WASHINGTON-The Trump administration is scrambling to determine the specifics of its new tariff agenda ahead of its self-imposed deadline of Wednesday, weighing options as the president has promised to remake the American economy with a swath of new levies.

One key point of debate is whether to impose individualized tariff rates for U.S. trading partners, as President Trump has previewed in recent weeks, or revert to his campaign pledge for an across-the-board tariff that would affect virtually every country doing business with the U.S., say people familiar with the conversations.

More Signs of Green Shoots for China's Economy in Manufacturing PMI

China's manufacturing sector continued to expand in March, another sign of green shoots in the world's second-largest economy as policymakers gear up for potential U.S. tariffs this week.

The official manufacturing purchasing managers index for March came in at 50.5, beating February's 50.2 as well as the 50.4 tipped by a Wall Street Journal poll of economists, according to the National Bureau of Statistics Monday. A reading above 50 suggests an expansion in manufacturing while a reading below that suggests a contraction.

OPEC+ is boosting output in April. Here's what that could mean for oil prices.

It's been a month since OPEC+ said it would go ahead and gradually unwind its voluntary production cuts starting on April 1, but threats to global supplies have helped prices recover their losses in March.

Tighter U.S. sanctions on Iran and Russia, threats of sanctions on buyers of Venezuelan oil and concerns over a possible tariff-related recession have all provided support to oil, setting up prices to end the month very close to where they started.

Copper Is 2025's Hottest Commodity

Copper prices in the U.S. have surged ahead of those in the rest of world and hit a record last week, a sign the mere threat of tariffs is lifting costs for domestic manufacturers.

Benchmark U.S. copper futures ended Friday at $5.1125 a pound, up 28% this year. That compares with a 13% gain to $9,795 a metric ton-or about $4.44 a pound-on the London Metal Exchange, which is the global trading hub.

Trump Expresses Anger at Putin as Ukraine Talks Make Little Progress

President Trump threatened new economic penalties on Russia and said he was angered by Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent comments, escalating his rhetoric as talks have resulted in little progress toward a real cease-fire in Ukraine.

On Friday, Putin called for "interim governance" in Ukraine under the auspices of the United Nations, which would essentially push out Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Trump Threatens Tariffs on Russian Oil, Bombs on Iran

President Donald Trump is threatening to slap secondary tariffs on Russian oil if Russia prevents a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and he threatened bombs on Iran if they don't make a peace deal.

"If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia's fault-which it might not be-but if I think it was Russia's fault, I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia," Trump told NBC News early Sunday.

Apple and Musk Clash Over Satellite Expansion Plans

Apple is clashing with Elon Musk in its push to eliminate cellphone dead spots with satellite technology.

The iPhone maker is investing heavily in satellite-based communications that keep users connected in places where traditional wireless signals aren't available. Musk's SpaceX, meanwhile, has launched more than 550 satellites that provide cellphone connectivity via its Starlink service.

Harley-Davidson Wants Payback if Europe Targets Its Bikes

A Harley-Davidson isn't cheap no matter where you buy it.

But if the European Union imposes a 50% retaliatory tariff on the company's motorcycles in April, prices could reach astounding heights in Harley's second-largest market by sales.

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Expected Major Events for Monday

05:00/FIN: Feb Retail sales

06:00/DEN: Feb Unemployment

06:00/DEN: 4Q Revised GDP

06:00/GER: Feb Retail Trade

06:00/GER: Feb Foreign trade price indices

06:30/HUN: Feb PPI

06:30/HUN: Feb Preliminary External Trade

06:30/HUN: Feb Trade Balance

08:00/GER: Mar Bavaria CPI

08:00/GER: Mar North Rhine Westphalia CPI

08:00/GER: Mar Saxony CPI

08:00/GER: Mar Brandenburg CPI

08:00/GER: Mar Hesse CPI

08:00/GER: Mar Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI

08:30/UK: Feb Monetary & Financial Statistics

08:30/UK: Feb Bank of England effective interest rates

08:30/UK: Feb Money and Credit - Lending to Individuals, Lending to Businesses, Broad Money and Credit

09:00/BEL: 4Q Balance of Payments

09:00/LUX: Feb PPI

09:00/CRO: Feb Industrial Production Volume Index

09:00/CYP: Feb PPI

09:00/GRE: Jan Turnover Index in Retail Trade

09:00/ITA: Mar Provisional CPI

09:00/ITA: Mar Cities CPI

10:00/POR: Feb Industrial production index

12:00/POL: 4Q Quarterly Balance of Payments

12:00/GER: Mar Provisional CPI

16:59/SPN: Feb Budget deficit

16:59/SPN: Jan Monthly Balance of Payments

16:59/SPN: Jan Budget deficit

16:59/SPN: Dec Budget deficit

16:59/BEL: Feb PPI

17:59/UK: Feb Adzuna UK Job Market Report

23:01/UK: Mar Shop Price Index

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March 31, 2025 00:04 ET (04:04 GMT)

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