【季度报告：需求增量有限 铁矿石价格中枢下移】金十期货3月31日讯，1. 供应方面：天气扰动对铁矿的供应逐渐消散，铁矿发运预计回升。BHP前三季度发运同比增加246.8万吨，FMG前三季度发运同比增加527.6万吨，年中发运冲量空间缩小。但是力拓及淡水河谷一季度发运同比下降326.2万吨及205.9万吨。2. 需求方面：下游仍处于复产复工中，“银四”预期仍存，但是增量有限。钢材维持低库存，利润回升但是生产谨慎，关注钢厂生产节奏。3. 展望二季度，供应端扰动逐步消散，对铁矿价格支撑减弱。目前材端需求尚未见顶，市场也在等待需求验证和铁水拐点。整体上，预计铁矿价格会在区间650-800运行，走势前高后低。
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