金吾财讯 | 东吴证券发研报指，新奥能源(02688)2024年公司实现营业收入1098.53亿元，同比减少3.79%；归母净利润59.87亿元，同比减少12.16%；扣非归母净利润59.87亿元，同比增长9.57%；核心利润69.5亿元，同比减少8.4%，符合该行预期。每股派息3港元，派息率45%(按照核心利润计算)，对应股息率4.7%(估值日2025/3/28)。该行表示，3月26日，新奥股份(A)、新奥能源(H)发布重组方案公告。新奥股份(当前持股新奥能源34.28%股权)将对新奥能源进行私有化，并在港股上市；交易完成后新奥能源将退市并成为新奥股份的全资子公司。本次交易对价599.24亿港元，对应新奥能源2024年核心利润12倍PE；其中股份支付415.72亿港元，现金支付183.52亿港元；新奥能源计划股东每股股份可获得2.9427股新奥股份发行的H股股份及24.50港元现金付款；每股隐含的价格为80港元，对应收盘价存25%空间(估值日2025/3/28)。该行考虑到公司大力进行用户开拓，接驳户数下降幅度小于预期(接驳单价略有下降)，将带来后续更多气量增长；该行上调公司2025-2026年盈利预测至73.72/79.20亿元(原值70.84/73.17亿元)，引入2027年盈利预测84.80亿元，2025-2027年同比+23.1%%/+7.4%/+7.1%，对应当前PE9.1/8.4/7.9倍(估值日期2025/3/28)。私有化定价彰显价值重估空间，维持“买入”评级。
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