星展指，国寿(02628.HK) 去年业绩强劲，投资收益受惠灵活谨慎投资策略，增加配置长期政府债券和高股息股票，在股市显著调整期间主动提高权益类资产配置。国寿持有期限超过10年的债券占投资组合40%，高股息股票占其权益类资产25%。由于更大比例资产产生稳定经常性收益，国寿得以在市场波动加剧期间灵活增加其权益配置。
鉴于行业普遍将长期投资回报假设下调50基点，产品结构显著转向参与型产品。结合去年第一季度较高基数，该行认为将对国寿新业务价值(NBV)利润率前景构成压力。但银保渠道利润率改善及该渠道对新业务价值贡献增加，估计国寿今明两年新业务价值将分别增长3.8%和7.7%。
考虑到长期投资假设下调50个基点对内含价值的影响，该行将国寿目标价由20元下调至19元，维持“买入”评级。(fc/u)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-03-31 12:25。)
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