中银国际表示，龙湖(00960.HK) 2024年收入按年下降29.5%至1,275亿元人民币，比该行预期低9.1%。经常性收入按年增长7.4%至267亿元人民币，对总收入的贡献上升7.2个百分点至21.0%。得益于经常性业务毛利率的稳定，整体毛利率相对平稳，仅下降0.9个百分点至16.0%，比该行预期高0.9个百分点。2024年，经常性业务贡献了70%的总毛利(2023年为44%)。
基于更为保守的收入结转和毛利率假设，该行龙湖将2025至2026年的核心每股盈利预测分别下调24.8%至25.3%。龙湖继续产生充足的正现金流，同时管理层制定了明确的路线图来偿还2025年到期的债务，这进一步增强了该行对龙湖财务安全的信心。考虑到上述因素，该行将目标价下调8.5%至9.99港元，评级由“买入”下调至“持有”。(ad/u)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-03-31 12:25。)
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