The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1543 ET - Oil's sanction-fueled rally runs out of steam as the market braces for the Trump administration to unveil its tariff plan tomorrow, which many in the market see as likely to hurt global growth and demand. The boost from President Trump's comments about possibly sanctioning buyers of Russia's oil is tempered by OPEC+ starting to unwind 2.2 million barrels a day of output cuts over 18 months, with increases estimated at 138,000 barrels a day in April. WTI settles down 0.4% at $71.20 a barrel, and Brent falls 0.4% to $74.49 a barrel.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1524 ET - Livestock futures on the CME finish higher, with the most-active live cattle contract closing up 0.9% to $2.054 a pound, while the lean hog contract ends 1.8% higher at 97.125 cents a pound. The uptick in livestock comes ahead of tomorrow's so-called "Liberation Day," in which the Trump Administration is poised to launch new tariffs on various trade partners. This is seen as a negative for agricultural futures, with retaliatory tariffs expected from these nations possibly impacted export demand for U.S. meats. But the tariff threat wasn't a factor in today's trading. "Tariffs are already baked into the market," says Karl Setzer of Consus Ag Consulting. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1513 ET - U.S. natural gas futures snap a four-session winning streak, settling back below $4 as a late-season cold spell forecast for the Midwest and East loses some of its bite, and the market looks toward what's likely to be a third straight weekly storage build. Another inventory build "will chop another big chunk off the deficit to last year and the five-year average," Mizuho's Robert Yawger says in a note. It "could even set the stage for a switch back to a surplus to the five year in coming weeks."The Nymex front month settles down 4.1% at $3.951/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1500 ET - Fear-based trading eased, with investors speculating that the Trump Administration will likely issue softer tariff rules than initially expected. As a result, gold futures settle down 0.1% to $3,118.90 a troy ounce. This snaps a 3-day winning streak for gold, although the sentiment around markets have stayed generally risk-off, says Rhona O'Connell of StoneX in a note. But how gold trades tomorrow is tied closely to how or if tariffs are levied. "It all hinges around tariff day, what is said, what is the underlying intention, and how viable would be the implementation of any proposals," O'Connell says in a note. Tariffs are expected to be announced tomorrow, in what President Trump has dubbed "Liberation Day." (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

By Matt Grossman

As a new round of tariffs bears down, a Fed official cautioned Tuesday that uncertainty is leaving some businesses "frozen" or "paralyzed."

A blistering pace of policy changes has companies and consumers facing far more uncertainty than at the start of the year, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said in a speech.

He compared the backdrop to a thick fog that makes driving dangerous.

"It's not an everyday 'forecasting is hard' type of fog," Barkin said. "It's a zero visibility, pull over and turn on your hazards type of fog."

Like a car that has pulled over, the Fed is waiting for more clarity before it acts, Barkin said, citing the central bank's decision to hold interest rates steady at its two latest meetings.

"With the labor market still solid and inflation still above target, our moderately restrictive stance is a good place to be," Barkin said.

This item is part of a Wall Street Journal live coverage event. The full stream can be found by searching P/WSJL (WSJ Live Coverage).

1337 ET - Prices for Russian wheat are climbing, according to data from SovEcon. The firm says bids for 12.5% wheat out of Russian deep-sea ports rose to 17,600-18,000 rubles per metric ton, up from 17,300-17,800 rubles per ton reported the previous week. It's the first uptick in Russian wheat prices since February, says SovEcon--with demand for wheat exports rising since then. One factor making demand stronger is a weaker ruble, the firm adds. The ruble to U.S. dollar index is off 23% year-to-date, according to data from FactSet. Most-active wheat futures on the CBOT are up 0.4%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1326 ET - Yesterday's USDA reports--the Prospective Plantings report and the quarterly Grain Stocks report--ended up being net neutral for the grain market, says Karl Setzer of Consus Ag Consulting. This is likely putting a limit on selling ahead of tariff announcements, he says. "We really didn't see anything negative in yesterday's reports, and while nothing was very bullish, the neutral report was enough to limit fresh selling." Most-active corn is up 0.8%, while soybeans rise 1.5% and wheat climbs 0.4%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1316 ET - Crude futures turn lower in choppy trade, retreating from five-week highs reached yesterday after President Trump said he could sanction buyers of Russian oil. "The market's response has been fairly muted as participants partially consider this as a mechanism to accelerate the ceasefire and ending the [Russia-Ukraine] war," Janiv Shah of Rystad Energy says in a note. The threat also coincides with OPEC+ starting to gradually unwind 2.2 million barrels a day of output cuts with an estimated 138,000 b/d this month. "The unwinding of OPEC+'s cuts has somewhat mitigated the reduced flow threat as OPEC+ spare capacity exists above 5 million barrels per day," Shah says. India and China are the main buyers of Russian oil. WTI is off 0.4% at $71.21 a barrel, and Brent is down 0.3% at $74.54 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1310 ET - While many investors across markets think that tomorrow's announcements from President Trump on reciprocal tariffs will provide some much-needed certainty for traders, some in the agricultural space think that volatility and uncertainty will continue well after tomorrow. "I suspect that initial tariff numbers will only be the beginning of a back and forth situation," says Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities. "A recipe for higher volatility than we've seen lately." Retaliatory tariffs will likely target U.S. farmers and impede export demand for crops and meats. Most-active corn is up 0.9%, while soybeans rise 1.6% and wheat climbs 0.4%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1135 ET - Farmers are cautiously optimistic about the upcoming crop year, but sentiment is slipping in reaction to the heightened uncertainty surrounding tariffs and crop prices that remain unprofitable for most farmers. The Purdue University/CME Group agricultural barometer shows a decline in the sentiment of surveyed farmers, although the survey notes that livestock producers are generally holding a stronger outlook than crop farmers, due to better economic conditions. Some 43% of surveyed producers say that their chief concern right now is trade policy, an increase since the November election. While 30% of farmers also project export sales declining this year, and 52% expect that the U.S. government will provide economic relief similar to the Market Facilitation Program payments of 2019. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1110 ET - Lean hog futures on the CME are up 1.1% in early trading, following the overall agricultural complex higher ahead of tomorrow's expected tariff announcements from President Trump. Although futures are higher, traders and analysts are generally nervous about the content of any tariff orders. The market is hopeful for a less stringent set of rules than telegraphed by the administration, but also nervous that the White House says there will be no tariff exemptions for farmers. The longer trading goes on without any indicators about the tariffs, the more acute pressure may become, says Ben Johnson of New Frontier Capital Markets. "We anticipate to get a few tidbits today with the bulk of the news tomorrow," Johnson says. "Watching for any pullback in measures." (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1053 ET - ICE cotton is up 1.1% after the USDA's Prospective Planting report showed planting intentions for cotton acres being reduced to their lowest in nearly a decade. At 9.87 million acres, expectations for cotton are at their lowest since 2016 -- and down over 1.3 million acres from actual planted area last year. Pressuring cotton planting is weakness in cotton prices, with ICE futures finding a low of 63 cents a pound last month. That's the lowest since September 2020, according to FactSet data. "Cotton has been facing very poor profitability for several years now and is among the crops with the highest percentage of production exported, making it very vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs," says Betty Resnick of the American Farm Bureau Federation in a note. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 01, 2025 16:15 ET (20:15 GMT)

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