【烧碱再破位是下跌中继还是低位诱空?】金十期货4月1日讯,供应端来看,前期检修的存量装置逐步恢复生产。中国烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率达83%左右,周环比开始回升,山东氯碱企业周平均毛利周环比下调。周内液碱价格下行,液氯价格上行,致使氯碱利润下行。非铝行业的需求大多处于刚需观望阶段。粘胶行业目前的周开工率为 88.36%,环比上涨2.43%,能维持刚需采购,对液碱需求的拉动作用微弱;江浙印染行业的开工68.51%,环比持平,但整体来看,对液碱需求的增量十分有限,难以对市场价格形成有力支撑。在供应不断增加,而需求却未见明显改善的情况下,预计华东区域的液碱行情窄幅调整。从当前4-5月国内氯碱装置检修来看,华东各区域检修装置产能120.5万吨,较3月份增加70.5万吨,届时华东区域烧碱产量跟随下降,且需求回升预期下,预计4月末5月初,华东供需面或暂时有支撑;短线来看,华东区域前期检修装置逐步恢复,且非铝需求多刚需观望,中辉期货分析师苏日嘎拉图认为,烧碱盘面预计二季度初期呈低位反弹结构,持续上行空间有限。
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