Monsters of Rock: Bellevue gold guidance still in limbo, Rio AGM, miners tanked by tariffs

Stockheads
04 Apr
  • Bellevue Gold reveals production hit from underperforming stopes, but still in suspension with numbers being tallied
  • Rio faces activist shareholders at first AGM
  • Miners tank as Trump tariffs shake market

A nervous wait to assess the impact of a drop off in production at Bellevue Gold’s (ASX:BGL) mine of the same name will continue, with the ASX 200 gold miner extending a voluntary suspension again today.

It’s now been over a week since the firm entered a trading halt, finally revealing that it produced only ~25,700oz of gold in the March quarter.

The issue was a string of stopes from around the edges of the orebody which BGL said had “uncharacteristically underperformed compared to the Reserve”.

“Rapid mining rates due to ramp up also led to some dilution of grade. Mining rates exceeded processing rates for the quarter resulting in a ROM stockpile of >35kt at the end of the quarter,” BGL said in a statement.

“As a result, head grades delivered to the processing plant were lower than expected in March 2025 and quarterly production was approximately 25.7koz.

“The Company’s estimated cash and gold on hand position on 31 March 2025 totalled ~A$49 million (December 2024 quarter pro-forma A$81 million), with debt of A$100M and no principal debt repayments due until CY27.”

BGL shares fell steeply at the start of last week, taking a drop from highs of $2.03 in July last year – which came before a large discounted capital raise to restructure its debt with Macquarie and prioritise spending on drilling and growth.

The miner cut guidance after the December quarter from 165,000-180,000oz to 150,000-165,000oz, with all-in sustaining cost projections for the full year lifted from $1750-1850/oz to $1900-2100/oz.

Second half guidance had been set at 90,000oz at $1750-1950/oz.

BGL produced 96,000oz in FY24, but wants to ramp up to 250,000ozpa from FY28.

Visible Alpha consensus for BGL’s March quarter production had previously been 36,000oz at AISC of $2256/oz, up from 26,059oz at $2770/oz in the December quarter, with a stronger June quarter of 51,000oz at $1757/oz having been tipped to push production to the lower end of the guidance range of 150,000oz at $2108/oz.

BGL says until it is able to provide the updated production guidance announcement it won’t be able to provide an interim announcement or update “without potentially creating a false or disorderly market in its securities”.

“Any form of interim disclosure would be based on incomplete and uncertain information without reasonable grounds,” BGL said. “Accordingly, any interim disclosure could result in trading in the Company’s securities occurring while the market is not reasonably informed.”

Rio faces round one of activist staredown

Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) stared down activist investor Palliser Capital for the first of a two-round rumble at its first AGM in London overnight.

The second leg of the contest over a vote initiated by Palliser to review the miner’s dual-listed structure will take place in Perth on May 1.

The full results of the shareholder-led resolution, which would prompt a review into a process mirroring the unification initiated by rival BHP (ASX:BHP) in 2022, will not be known until after the Perth vote.

Palliser has said unification with a primary listing on the ASX would help garner stronger premiums for Rio shares and enable it to use scrip easier to do deals. Rio has argued the unwind would cost billions in tax.

Palliser founder James Smith invoked memories at the AGM of 2007’s disastrous US$38bn Alcan deal, which resulted in major writedowns and became known as one of the worst mining deals. However some large shareholders, notably Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund, have been reportedly planning to vote against the unification proposal.

Rio thinks it would need to find US$40bn of incremental demand from Australian resident investors or reassessments from international investors to backfill its current ASX valuation if the company is unified.

The ASX 300 Metals and Mining index fell 6.78% over the past week.

Which ASX 300 Resources stocks have impressed and depressed?

Making gains 🚀

Regis Resources (ASX:RRL) (gold) +9.3%

Catalyst Metals (ASX:CYL) (gold) +7.1%

Ramelius Resources (ASX:RMS) (gold) +6.3%

De Grey Mining (ASX:DEG) (gold) +6%

Eating losses 😭

Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR) (lithium) -27.3%

Capstone Copper Corp (ASX:CSC) (copper) -25.1%

Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS) (lithium) – 24.7%

Chalice Mining (ASX:CHN) (PGMs) -24.3%

The tariff mania in the US came home to roost among ASX miners, with punitive measures against China and the EU leading to fears Trump’s economic policies could throttle global growth and demand for metals.

Gold stood out, taking home all of the top mover categories as prices hit all time highs in excess of US$3100/oz and even close to US$3170/oz at one point.

Lithium players were hit hard by a combination of continued weak prices, Trump’s reciprocal tariffs and a 25% tariff on auto imports to the US, raising fears that EV demand will be damagedafter a bright start to 2025.

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