GLOBAL MARKETS-Trump tariffs trigger global stocks and dollar rout

Reuters
03 Apr
GLOBAL MARKETS-Trump tariffs trigger global stocks and dollar rout

Global stocks tumble as Trump tariffs feed recession fears

Dollar heads for biggest drop since November 2022

Bonds, yen and other traditional safe havens rally

By Marc Jones

LONDON, April 3 (Reuters) - World stocks, the dollar and oil all tumbled on Thursday as Donald Trump’s drastic new U.S. trade tariffs drove widespread fears of a global recession and left investors seeking safe-haven bonds and the yen.

A new baseline 10% tariff on imported goods plus some eye-watering additional 'reciprocal' tariffs on dozens of countries Trump said had unfair trade barriers, left traders clearly rattled by their severity.

In Europe, where the 27-country EU bloc now faces a 20% reciprocal levy, bourses lurched between 1.3% and 2% lower as Brussels and other capitals voiced uproar. .EU

Wall Street futures NQc1ESc1 were down 3% ahead of what was expected to be a turbulent U.S. restart later. The dollar's 2% plunge .DXY had it heading for its worst daily drubbing since November 2022. /FRX

In Asia, where some of the harshest tariffs had been focused, Tokyo .N225 had dropped 2.7% to leave it facing its worst week in nearly two years. .EU.T

Analysts at JPMorgan said the tariffs were "significantly higher than the realistic worst-case scenario" that had been envisaged.

Credit rating agency Fitch warned they were a "game-changer" for both the U.S. and global economy, while Deutsche Bank called them a "once in a lifetime" moment that could easily knock between 1%-1.5% off U.S. growth this year.

"Many countries will likely end up in a recession," Fitch's Olu Sonola said. "You can throw most forecasts out the door if this tariff rate stays on for an extended period of time."

The scramble for ultra-safe government bonds that provide a guaranteed income drove U.S. Treasury yields down towards 4% and Germany's 10-year yield DE10YT=RR, the European benchmark borrowing rate, went 8.5 basis points lower to 2.64%. GVD/EUR

The sweeping new tariffs will raise effective import taxes in the world's largest economy to the highest levels in a century. If they do trigger recessions, central banks around the world are likely to slash interest rates which benefits bonds.

S&P 500 ESc1 and Nasdaq NQc1 futures were both down over 3% ahead of what was expected to be a treacherous Wall Street restart. .N

Apple AAPL.O was marked down 6.5%, hit by the tariffs on China - the base for much of Apple's manufacturing. Amazon.com AMZN.O was down over 5%, Microsoft MSFT.O 1.8% while AI poster child Nvidia NVDA.O was down 3.5%.

It comes after trillions off dollars have already wiped off the 'Magnificent Seven' tech giants this year as worries have mounted.

CHINA FOCUS

Trump's levies had impacted Asia particularly hard.

China was hit with a 34% tariff, Japan got 24%, South Korea 25% and Vietnam 46%. Vietnamese stocks .VNI slumped 6.7% in response and Nike NKE.N, Adidas ADSGn.DE and Puma PUMG.DE who all source heavily from Vietnam and other Asian producers were pummelled as much as 10%.

The risk sensitive Australian dollar also fell as it was hit as well AUD/ and with China, Canada and Europe all promising countermeasures, investors were selling exposure to global growth.

Oil, a proxy for economic activity, dropped as much 4% in London to push Brent LCOc1 back below $72 a barrel and firmly on course for its worst day of the year so far. O/R

Gold XAU= hit a record high above $3,160 an ounce before running out of steam while Japan's yen jumped more than 1.5% to 147.01 per dollar JPY= as foreign exchange traders looked for safety outside the U.S. dollar.

The Swiss franc CHF=EBS, another traditional safety play touched its strongest level in four months as the euro EUR=EBS surged 2% to $1.10. FRX/

"Eye-watering tariffs on a country-by-country basis scream 'negotiation tactic', which will keep markets on edge for the foreseeable future," said Adam Hetts, global head of multi-asset and portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors.

China, held its currency relatively steady, containing the yuan's drop to about 0.4% despite total tariffs of above 50% on Chinese exports and the hit to Vietnam seen as shutting down a popular work-around route.

China's big domestic economy and the hope of support from Beijing limited losses in Hong Kong stocks .HSI to about 1.5% and in Shanghai .SSEC to around 0.5%.

"The key focus over the next few days should clearly be China," said Deutsche Bank strategist George Saravelos.

"How willing will China be to wait for trade negotiations ... or to absorb this?," he said. "Or will it try to 'export' the shock ... via a devaluation of the yuan."

The U.S. dollar has dropped this year on fears that tariffs will knock growth https://reut.rs/4cgCEQg

Tariff trauma https://reut.rs/3RvRoRR

(Additional reporting by Tom Westbrook in Singapore; Editing by Toby Chopra)

((marc.jones@thomsonreuters.com; +44 (0)20 7513 4042; Reuters Messaging: marc.jones.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net X/Twitter @marcjonesrtrs))

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