Reciprocal Tariffs Pose Downside Risks for Best Buy, Home-Furnishing Retailers, Wedbush Says
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The Trump administration's sweeping new reciprocal tariffs are likely to impact Best Buy (BBY) the most among hardline retailers, followed by certain home-furnishing companies, Wedbush Securities said Thursday.
President Donald Trump late Wednesday announced duties on imports from several nations including China and Japan. A 10% base tariff rate takes effect for all countries Saturday, according to a White House announcement, though there will be additional duties that vary by country.
Electronics retailer Best Buy is subject to the most downside risk in Wedbush's coverage, followed by home-furnishing retailers Wayfair (W), RH (RH), Williams-Sonoma (WSM) and Arhaus (ARHS). That's because of their high import exposure from high-tariff countries and big-ticket discretionary focus, according to Wedbush.
Best Buy shares were down nearly 15% in Thursday afternoon trade, while Wayfair sank 25%. RH tumbled 40%, while Williams-Sonoma and Arhaus shed 14% each.
There is "considerable uncertainty" on the ultimate impact of tariffs on hardline retailers due to changes in consumer spending trends, price elasticity and cost mitigation amounts, Wedbush analysts Seth Basham and Matthew McCartney said.
Best Buy expects its vendors to "pass along some level of tariff costs to retailers, making price increases for American consumers highly likely," Chief Executive Corie Barry said during an earnings call conference early last month, according to a FactSet transcript.
RH late Wednesday reported fiscal fourth-quarter results that missed market expectations. In a letter to shareholders, CEO Gary Friedman said the company will work with its manufacturing partners to mitigate the impact to its margins from Wednesday's reciprocal tariffs.
Williams-Sonoma CEO Laura Alber said last month that the company was "well set up for a great 2025" and wasn't planning for "significant upside or downside" from the uncertain macro environment.
Lower import-heavy discretionary retailers like mattress companies could see negative demand impacts from tariffs, while pet store-focused companies Chewy (CHWY) and Petco Health and Wellness (WOOF) and used-vehicle retailers CarMax (KMX) and Carvana (CVNA) are "best positioned" due to low import exposure, according to Wedbush.
Auto part retailers Genuine Parts (GPC), AutoZone (AZO), Advance Auto Parts (AAP) and O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) are also "very well positioned," the analysts said. These names have the strongest pricing power among hardline retailers due to their non-discretionary sales mix, Basham and McCartney said.
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