US President Donald Trump's recently announced 24% tariffs on Japanese exports could shave 0.2 percentage point off Japan's real GDP growth in 2025, Nomura said in a Friday research note.

The tariffs appear to be a response to perceived high non-tariff barriers in Japan, which the US government has long criticized, Nomura said.

Japanese real exports of goods and services will decline by about 0.7 percentage points due to the tariffs, the equity research firm said.

The development has also increased downside risks to the Japanese economy compared to the last forecast, Nomura said.

The central bank's plan of an earlier interest rate increase is now subject to increased uncertainty, according to the research firm.

However, Nomura maintains its forecast of a rate hike in July, followed by another in January 2026.