智通财经APP获悉，优然牧业(09858)逆市涨超5%，截至发稿，涨4.71%，报2.67港元，成交额3131.84万港元。
消息面上，优然牧业发布年度业绩，实现收入200.96亿元，同比增长7.5%。公司调整后溢利表现亮眼，现金EBITDA率显著提升。花旗发表报告指，公司盈利和自由现金流对原奶价格高度敏感，而行业稳定的趋势下，预期在目前的水平上行多于下行。
海通证券指出，22年以来奶价持续低迷，主要受累于原奶供给过剩叠加需求疲软。随着供给端奶牛存栏持续出清，25年下半奶价有望回升。该行指出，目前原奶价格自峰值回落已有近30%，假设原料奶单位成本不变，以24年上半年数据计算，如果原奶销售价格同比+10%，优然牧业毛利端有望提升6.1pct；若增幅超过30%，公司毛利率将获得15pct以上的改善空间。此外，随着养殖成本下降与奶价回升，企业生物资产减值有望回补。
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