金吾财讯 | 建银国际研报指，青岛啤酒股份(00168)2024财年业绩弱于预期。2024财年净利润增长2%至43.45亿元人民币，较该行的预期/市场共识低2%/2%，主要因毛利率低于预期及销售费用率高于预期。受销量下降6%拖累，2024财年营收下降5%。通过2024财年渠道库存调整，该行认为青岛啤酒2025财年销量有望恢复增长。当前库存水平健康，且公司将基于较低基数实现增长。该行预计2025财年营收同比增长2.4%，由0.2%的销量增长及2.3%的平均售价（ASP）提升共同驱动。预计高端啤酒（包括纯生和白啤）销量增速将继续跑赢整体。有利的大麦价格及产品结构升级应足以支撑2025财年毛利率同比扩张0.6个百分点至40.8%。该行认为青岛啤酒将采取审慎的销售及管理费用策略，优先提升效率及削减成本，推动息税前利润率提升0.9个百分点至14.9%。该行维持2025财年盈利预测不变，但将目标企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润（EV/EBITDA）倍数从10.0倍上调至12.0倍，以反映近期消费情绪改善及政策利好推动的行业重估。因此，该行将A股目标价从61.50元人民币上调至68.80元人民币，H股目标价从49.20港元上调至55.00港元（相当于A股目标价30%折价）。青岛啤酒股息支付率从2023财年的64%提升至2024年的69%。鉴于公司稳健的自由现金流及向股东返还价值的承诺，该行认为支付率仍有进一步提升空间。维持中性评级。
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