高盛下调兖矿能源(01171.HK) 今明两年盈利预测17%及9%，反映中国及海运煤炭基准价格下降以及兖矿煤炭产量增加。
该行料公司今年商品煤产量将达1.57亿吨，按年升10%，主要由新疆地区1,000万吨扩产推动，但由于平均售价和单位利润降低，新增产量对利润的贡献几乎为零。该行料今年基准秦皇岛5500大卡动力煤现货价格平均每吨706元人民币，按年跌17%。
但短期内现货价格应会稳定，因独立电厂去库存已基本完成。预计今年至2027年海运动力煤和冶炼煤价格将较去年下跌1%至17%，有关领域占兖矿自有煤炭产量33%。
高盛维持该股“中性”评级，目标价由7.8元下调至7.3元。(fc/w)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-04-01 12:25。)
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