BlockBeats 消息,4 月 1 日,QCP 发布今日市场分析,BTC、ETH 和标普 500 指数都录得三年来最糟糕的季度表现。自上周五以来,超过 1600 亿美元的加密货币市值被抹去,这预示着第二季度的开局令人警醒,市场仍在寻找其看涨势头。周五的大幅回调是由大量的季度末到期交易推动的,交易商在固定利率上大举抛售,导致期权资金从持平转为负值。在加密货币去杠杆化之际,宏观数据再次受到打击:核心通胀数据高于预期,证实了 2 月份通胀更为强劲,尽管消费者支出仍然低迷。市场现在紧张地转向下一个潜在的催化剂。特朗普的“解放日”定于 4 月 2 日,他承诺届时将宣布一系列广泛的对等关税。
随着消费者信心跌至 12 年低点,股市已经因每周下跌 4 至 5% 而动荡不安。广泛而激进的政策可能加剧衰退担忧,并导致风险资产螺旋式下跌。波动性指标呈现出复杂的情况,VIX 指数保持在 22 的高位,反映出股市的持续不安。相比之下,加密货币波动性则没有受到抛售的影响,尽管经历了类似的下跌,并在周五出现大规模抛售,但仍在走低。
4 月历来是加密货币的季节性强劲月份,随着市场消化一系列宏观风险并等待更清晰的方向,未来可能将由横向盘整决定。本周关键事件包括 ISM 数据、非农就业报告及鲍威尔讲话。
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