华泰证券发表报告，绿城中国(03900.HK) 去年收入1,585亿元人民币(下同)，按年增长21%；归母净利润16亿元，按年降49%，符合业绩预告。利润下滑的主要原因是行业下行导致存货减值计提加大，以及少数股东权益占比上升所致。公司开发业务综合表现仍优于同行，待高权益项目后续进入结转周期，有望带动盈利能力回升，维持“买入”评级。
考虑公司并表比例有望提升，该行上调其收入假设；但受行业下行影响，毛利率假设同步下调，降今明两年每股盈测49%及55%，最新预计2025年至27年每股盈利为0.57元、0.59元及0.67元。由于地产行业业绩受存货减值变动影响较大，将估值方法由市盈率切换为市账率。2025年预计每股账面价值为14.63元，参考可比公司Wind一致预期2025年市账率均值0.81倍，该行认为公司合理市账率水平与其一致，对应目标价由原先10.92港元升至12.73港元。(ad/da)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-04-03 12:25。)
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