金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，好房子需要好服务，好服务需要优质优价。该行预计，重庆在2023年阶段性推出物业费强限价政策，并不会在全国范围形成潮流。该行指，强限价出发点是好的，但在当前多种因素下容易产生存量物业服务合同收缴率明显下降，形成负的外部性。四大因素决定不宜轻言对物业费强限价：1）我国物业服务总体是服务不足，供给质量偏低；2）物业服务公司的基础服务盈利是合理偏低的，行业规模经济效应尚不十分明显，一旦强限价，反而可能导致劣币驱逐良币，最终影响民生福祉；3）业委会成立和集体决策的复杂性，使得前期物业服务合同的强限价必然影响市场定价合同；4）物业服务是对物的服务，居民对物的服务缺乏品质认知。该行预计，重庆等个别城市阶段性推出的强限价政策已经出现了调整的迹象，优质优价，质价相符预计成为政策鼓励的方向。该行相信，调整会从源头扭转市场对于物业服务行业的定价和盈利能力预期。目前物业服务板块处于政策担忧下的基本面疲软，业绩增速放缓，周期性业务走低等多重因素带来的估值和盈利双重低点，预计未来向上弹性较大，且作为红利板块安全边际显着。该行建议投资者关注物业服务板块的政策拐点。
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