MARKET SNAPSHOT

U.S. stocks strengthened in afternoon trading and ended mixed amid trade jiters. Treasury yields ended a losing quarter with a daily decline, as markets braced for a likely large round of tariffs Wednesday. Oil prices increased after President Trump's threat of possible tariffs on countries that buy Russian crude and mention of a possible strike against Iran. Gold reached another all-time high, skyrocketing above $3,100 a troy ounce, as a widening global trade war and uncertain geopolitical outlook boost the precious metal's appeal.

MARKET WRAPS

EQUITIES

U.S. stocks mostly gained as investors awaited details of Trump's tariff plans.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1%. The S&P 500 gained 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.1%.

The S&P 500 was led by defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities. The day capped a turbulent quarter for markets: exuberance about deregulation and tax cuts gave way to fear that Trump's trade policy could drive the economy into recession, driving the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to their biggest quarterly losses since 2022.

Earlier Monday, Chinese shares declined amid tariff concerns as investors are monitoring developments ahead of Trump's expected announcement.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.5%, the Shenzhen Composite Index was 1% lower, and the ChiNext Price Index dropped 1.2%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index declined 1.3%.

Japan's Nikkei Stock Average fell 4% as chip and financial stocks led the declines.

Stocks in Australia dropped as the S&P/ASX 200 fell 1.7%.

New Zealand's NZX-50 closed 0.1% lower.as regional equities slipped amid worries about the impact of U.S. tariffs on the global economy.

COMMODITIES

Oil futures added to early gains after Trump's threat of possible tariffs on countries that buy Russian crude and mention of a possible strike against Iran.

The Russia threat probably has more bite than the Iran comment, but "I think it's more of a threat tactic than anything," said Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial. "It's not really a wildly bullish aspect because it's not going to stop all the oil, but it's causing some short-covering in the market."

West Texas Intermediate rose 3.1% to $71.48 a barrel, its highest level since Feb. 20. May Brent went off the board at $74.74 a barrel, up 1.5%

This was in contrast to the news that major Wall Street banks lowered their oil-price forecast for the remainder of the year.

A survey compiled by The Wall Street Journal, which included Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley, showed Brent crude is expected to average $72.13 a barrel this year, while West Texas Intermediate is projected at $68.36 a barrel. In a February survey, the benchmarks were seen at $75.23 and $71.51 a barrel, respectively.

Gold futures achieved another all-time record as front-month gold closed out trading for the quarter, rising 1.2% to $3,122.80 per troy ounce. It's the third consecutive session that front-month gold finished higher. Year-to-date, gold has risen nearly 19%.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Trump Team Weighs Broader, Higher Tariffs

WASHINGTON-The Trump administration is scrambling to determine the specifics of its new tariff agenda ahead of its self-imposed deadline of Wednesday, weighing options as the president has promised to remake the American economy with a swath of new levies.

One key point of debate is whether to impose individualized tariff rates for U.S. trading partners, as President Trump has previewed in recent weeks, or revert to his campaign pledge for an across-the-board tariff that would affect virtually every country doing business with the U.S., say people familiar with the conversations.

Trump spent most of last week playing down expectations for his so-called reciprocal tariff plan on April 2, a line he reiterated on Air Force One on Sunday night, saying he would be "much more generous" than his previous pledges to equalize U.S. tariffs with those charged by other nations.

Goldman Sachs Lifts U.S. Recession Probability to 35%

SYDNEY-The prospect of a radical escalation in the global trade war in coming days has nearly doubled the probability of a recession in the U.S. economy in the next 12 months to around 35%, according to Goldman Sachs.

Ahead of the Trump administration's so-called "liberation day" on April 2, which will clarify the extent of U.S. tariff actions and spur likely reprisals from other countries, Goldman Sachs also lifted its forecast for U.S. inflation this year. Goldman said it now expects three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025.

"The upgrade from our previous 20% estimate (of a U.S. recession) reflects our lower growth baseline, the sharp recent deterioration in household and business confidence, and statements from White House officials indicating greater willingness to tolerate near-term economic weakness in pursuit of their policies," Goldman Sachs said in a research note.

Wall Street Banks Cut Oil Price Forecast Amid Tariff, Geopolitical Uncertainty

Major Wall Street banks lowered their oil-price forecast for the remainder of the year amid mounting concerns over the impact of global trade tariffs and an uncertain geopolitical outlook.

A survey compiled by The Wall Street Journal-which includes Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley-showed Brent crude is expected to average $72.13 a barrel this year, while West Texas Intermediate is projected at $68.36 a barrel. In a February survey, the benchmarks were seen at $75.23 and $71.51 a barrel, respectively.

U.S. President Trump's aggressive trade policies have introduced significant uncertainty in the market, stoking fears that a global trade war could ultimately raise inflation, dampen economic growth and reduce demand for crude.

German Inflation Sinks in March, Teeing Up ECB Rate Cut

German inflation declined notably in March, laying the groundwork for a rate cut from the European Central Bank, despite fears that U.S. tariffs and extra defense spending could lead to an inflationary rebound.

Consumer prices were 2.3% higher in March than the same month of 2024, down from 2.6% in February, German statistics agency Destatis said Monday, using European Union-harmonized figures.

That was a little cooler than expectations of 2.4% from economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

Copper Is 2025's Hottest Commodity

Copper prices in the U.S. have surged ahead of those in the rest of world and hit a record last week, a sign the mere threat of tariffs is lifting costs for domestic manufacturers.

Benchmark U.S. copper futures ended Friday at $5.1125 a pound, up 28% this year. That compares with a 13% gain to $9,795 a metric ton-or about $4.44 a pound-on the London Metal Exchange, which is the global trading hub.

It is an unprecedented gap in prices that have otherwise moved for decades in near lockstep.

Rocket to Buy Mr. Cooper Group in $9.4 Billion Mortgage-Industry Deal

Mortgage giant Rocket is making good on its goal of becoming a one-stop shop for homeowners with its $9.4 billion acquisition of Mr. Cooper Group, the country's largest mortgage servicer.

The combined company would service about one in every six U.S. mortgages, Rocket said when announcing the deal Monday. The acquisition would be one of the mortgage industry's largest ever.

Rocket, the third-largest U.S. mortgage lender, has been trying to grow its market share by streamlining the home-buying process. Rocket announced a deal earlier in March to buy Redfin in an all-stock deal that valued the real-estate brokerage at $1.75 billion.

Apple and Musk Clash Over Satellite Expansion Plans

Apple is clashing with Elon Musk in its push to eliminate cellphone dead spots with satellite technology.

The iPhone maker is investing heavily in satellite-based communications that keep users connected in places where traditional wireless signals aren't available. Musk's SpaceX, meanwhile, has launched more than 550 satellites that provide cellphone connectivity via its Starlink service.

To build capacity, the companies are competing for valuable spectrum rights-airwaves to carry their signals-which are in limited supply. Apple's outer-space investments have drawn Musk's ire, people familiar with the matter said. SpaceX has pushed federal regulators to stall an Apple-funded satellite expansion effort.

Expected Major Events for Tuesday

00:00/SKA: Mar Trade data

00:30/AUS: Feb Retail Trade

00:30/TAI: Mar Taiwan Manufacturing PMI

00:30/SKA: Mar South Korea Manufacturing PMI

00:30/JPN: Mar Japan Manufacturing PMI

00:30/THA: Mar Thailand Manufacturing PMI

01:45/CHN: Mar China Manufacturing PMI

03:30/AUS: Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision

05:00/JPN: Mar Auto sales

05:30/AUS: Mar Commodity Price Index

08:00/TAI: Mar CIER PMI

21:45/NZ: Feb Building Consents Issued

22:00/AUS: Mar Australian PMI

22:00/AUS: Mar Australian PCI

23:00/SKA: Mar CPI

23:50/JPN: Mar Monetary Base

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 31, 2025 17:01 ET (21:01 GMT)

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