Procter & Gamble Likely to Downgrade Outlook Amid Weak Demand Trends, Deutsche Bank Says
MT Newswires
01 Apr
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Procter & Gamble's (PG) fiscal third-quarter results are expected to reflect weak "top-line realities" that could prompt the consumer goods company to cut its full-year outlook, Deutsche Bank said Monday in a note.
The maker of Crest toothpaste and Pampers diapers is scheduled to release its latest results on April 24.
In January, the company affirmed its fiscal 2025 guidance, with adjusted earnings expected to be between $6.91 and $7.05, indicating a 6% increase from the previous year at the midpoint. The current consensus on FactSet is for $6.91.
Full-year sales were projected to grow 2% to 4% year over year, while organic growth was forecast in a range of 3% to 5%. Analysts are looking for revenue of $85.1 billion and organic growth of 2.8%.
Procter & Gamble entered its second half with "minimal flex" in its full-year guidance, Deutsche Bank analyst Steve Powers said. Since then, "category consumption trends have slowed (and) retail orders have lagged such consumption," mainly in the US amid waning consumer confidence, he said. In addition, markets such as China and the Middle East have not improved significantly.
Procter & Gamble is expected to struggle through the third quarter and lower its fiscal 2025 outlook "to reflect both these slower top-line realities and ample investment to improve prospects going forward," Powers wrote. "To that end, we also anticipate early expectations-setting commentary on (fiscal 2026) that will underscore cautious management planning into the new year," due to potential headwinds stemming from US tariffs on Canadian pulp and steel.
Deutsche Bank trimmed its price target on the stock to $185 from $188, while maintaining its buy recommendation. Powers said that most investors are likely already aware of the company's challenges, which are not limited to Procter & Gamble.
"We expect the environment around us to continue to be volatile and challenging, from input cost, to currencies, to consumer, retailer and geopolitical dynamics," Procter & Gamble Chief Financial Officer Andre Schulten said during a conference last month, according to a FactSet transcript.
The company is closely watching "additional layers of volatiliy" created by tariffs, Schulten said.
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