【避险情绪叠加出口预期悲观，EC盘面显著下行】金十期货4月8日讯，周一市场避险情绪浓厚，EC盘面显著回落，其中主力合约2506收跌10.55%至1885点。现货运价方面，PA联盟前期跟进MSC小幅提涨4月下旬报价，现部分价格回调，ONE线上报价从大柜2337美金降至大柜2137美金（线下维持大柜2202美金），略高于4月第一周沿用的大柜1737美金；后续盘面需关注船司5月实际基本面供需结构，独立看待近远月合约，前者锚定基本面，后者计价经济衰退和贸易萎缩。策略上可考虑6-10正套表达近远月不同交易逻辑，远端合约以空配为主，其中10合约可锚定04合约交割估值为参考。6-8月差短期将以正套形式呈现，价差预计收窄至平水结构表达市场远端悲观预期。
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