April 7 - RBC Capital Markets warned that the S&P 500 could fall as low as 4,200 if markets begin to fully price in a recession.
Lori Calvasina of RBC Capital Markets said recent losses resemble past growth scares but haven't yet hit full recession-level drawdowns. Based on historical averages, a recession-linked selloff could shave 27% to 32% off the index, placing it between 4,200 and 4,500.
The index has dropped more than 10% over just two sessions, echoing the swift declines seen during the 2015–2016 industrial slowdown. Friday's close stood at 5,074.08.
Technical support is expected near 4,954 and 4,884, with resistance at 5,126 and 5,228, according to the note. The 4,884 mark represents a 61.8% retracement from the rally that began in October 2023.
Defensive sectors are holding up better, while Energy, Technology, and Financials are underperforming. Calvasina said the rotation resembles behavior during the 2018 trade war period.
Though official data hasn't confirmed a recession, Calvasina noted that investor conversations are beginning to reflect growing economic fears.
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