It's easy to match the overall market return by buying an index fund. But if you buy individual stocks, you can do both better or worse than that. That downside risk was realized by Hyster-Yale, Inc. (NYSE:HY) shareholders over the last year, as the share price declined 42%. That contrasts poorly with the market decline of 2.0%. Longer term investors have fared much better, since the share price is up 16% in three years. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 27% in the last three months. But this could be related to the weak market, which is down 16% in the same period.
Since Hyster-Yale has shed US$87m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.
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To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Even though the Hyster-Yale share price is down over the year, its EPS actually improved. Of course, the situation might betray previous over-optimism about growth.
The divergence between the EPS and the share price is quite notable, during the year. So it's well worth checking out some other metrics, too.
Hyster-Yale managed to grow revenue over the last year, which is usually a real positive. Since we can't easily explain the share price movement based on these metrics, it might be worth considering how market sentiment has changed towards the stock.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Hyster-Yale has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time .
We regret to report that Hyster-Yale shareholders are down 41% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 2.0%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 1.9%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Hyster-Yale has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is a bit unpleasant) we think you should know about.
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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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