The three-year underlying earnings growth at Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (NASDAQ:GLDD) is promising, but the shareholders are still in the red over that time

Simply Wall St.
08 Apr

Many investors define successful investing as beating the market average over the long term. But in any portfolio, there are likely to be some stocks that fall short of that benchmark. We regret to report that long term Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation (NASDAQ:GLDD) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 43% in three years, versus a market return of about 15%. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 31% in the last three months. However, one could argue that the price has been influenced by the general market, which is down 16% in the same timeframe.

With the stock having lost 8.7% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.

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While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Great Lakes Dredge & Dock actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 4.1% per year. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

After considering the numbers, we'd posit that the the market had higher expectations of EPS growth, three years back. Looking to other metrics might better explain the share price change.

With revenue flat over three years, it seems unlikely that the share price is reflecting the top line. We're not entirely sure why the share price is dropped, but it does seem likely investors have become less optimistic about the business.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

NasdaqGS:GLDD Earnings and Revenue Growth April 7th 2025

We know that Great Lakes Dredge & Dock has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 2.0% in the twelve months, Great Lakes Dredge & Dock shareholders did even worse, losing 2.8%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 1.5% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Great Lakes Dredge & Dock , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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