Upstart Holdings experienced a significant price move of 24% over the past week, aligning with a broader market selloff fueled by escalating trade tensions and tariff uncertainties under the Trump administration. As major indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite saw steep declines, the company's share price faced added pressure. The market's turbulence, highlighted by a nearly 10% drop in the S&P 500, potentially exacerbated investor apprehensions around Upstart's business outlook. As the tech sector, including key players like Tesla and Apple, faced similar downward trends, Upstart's performance mirrored the heightened volatility affecting equity markets.

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The recent sharp price movement in Upstart Holdings, driven by escalating trade tensions and tariff uncertainties, could adversely affect market sentiment and investor confidence in its business model. This is particularly relevant as the company relies on AI-driven lending, which is sensitive to economic volatility. Moreover, the potential for trade-related constraints may pose challenges to Upstart's growth plans, including its HELOC expansion and improved underwriting models.

Over the past year, Upstart's total shareholder return, including both share price appreciation and dividends, reached 37.60%. This longer-term performance contrasts with its recent week of heightened volatility amidst broader market selloffs. Notably, Upstart exceeded the US market, which registered a 3.4% decline, illustrating resilience despite a challenging backdrop.

Analysts' revenue and earnings forecasts for Upstart might be impacted by these market fluctuations. With revenue projected to grow by 30% annually over the next three years and a target price of US$79.0, the current price movement may influence the revision of earnings and profit growth assumptions, especially given the recent decline from a current share price of US$46.0. This demonstrates a significant discount to the price target, indicating potential upside if market dynamics improve and analysts' growth expectations hold.

Our valuation report unveils the possibility Upstart Holdings' shares may be trading at a premium.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include NasdaqGS:UPST.

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