【里昂：美国对等关税差过预期 看好安踏和泡泡玛特】里昂发表报告指，美国对等关税差过预期，内地目前对美国的出口关税在玩具及家电和一些轻工业制品分别为54%和79%。此外，美国对东南亚国家的关税也显著上升，例如越南为46%，柬埔寨为49%。该行称，关税的直接影响是内地和东南亚的关税上调降低了代工公司及利用供应链进行海外扩展的公司的相对成本优势。而间接影响则是与美国通胀和经济衰退担忧相关的不利财富效应导致全球消费类公司出现回调。美元可能走弱以及金价上涨也可能对奢侈品公司构成阻力。该行分析了代工公司在美国销售的暴露情况、代工公司产能暴露情况以及品牌公司在美国的销售暴露情况。为了寻求防御性，建议关注面向国内需求而且具备市占率扩张故事的品牌公司，例如安踏体育(02020.HK)，也看好具备强大定价能力和灵活成本结构的公司，例如泡泡玛特(09992.HK)。
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