4 月 7 日，道明证券称，贸易紧张局势恶化可能会促使美联提前降息，10 年期美债收益率到今年底可能降至 3%。Oscar Munoz 等策略师在报告中写道，“我们对 FOMC 首次降息时点的预测从 7 月提前至 6 月，现在预计该委员会将在之后每次会议降息直至 2026 年 5 月。”
另外，分析师称美国经济出现衰退的可能性为 50%。随着美国总统特朗普的关税行动对全球市场造成冲击，道明证券加入了高盛和瑞银全球财富管理等机构的行列，把对美国政策宽松的预期提前。掉期交易员现在定价年底前美联储将降息四次以上，而 4 月 1 日，即特朗普公布超预期对等关税的前一天，预期为三次左右。(金十)
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