港股异动 | 铜业股再度下探 高盛警告称美报复性关税升级可能导致铜价本季度下跌

智通财经
07 Apr

智通财经APP获悉,铜业股再度下探,截至发稿,洛阳钼业(03993)跌16.72%,报5.13港元;五矿资源(01208)跌16.6%,报2.11港元;中国有色矿业(01258)跌14.9%,报4.57港元;江西铜业股份(00358)跌10.99%,报11.82港元;紫金矿业(02899)跌10.39%,报15.18港元。

国泰君安期货指出,当前铜的主要逻辑在于美国加征关税带来的冲击,导致风险资产价格普遍回落。从铜的消费预期看,全球的消费边际增长点主要在东南亚、中国、美国等,美国对东南亚和中国加征关税,将弱化此前的消费预期,全球铜的消费增速可能向下调整,可能改变此前供应偏紧的预期。国内铜价大幅低开后,短期内价格或仍面临承压,可等待关税进程情况及近期市场情绪变化。另外,目前美国铜进口暂时豁免“对等关税”,短期内可关注国内出口预期及社会库存变化情况。

高盛集团警告称,报复性关税升级可能导致铜价本季度至少暂时低于每吨9000美元。法国巴黎银行高级大宗商品策略师David Wilson表示:“显然,市场正在考虑美国对等关税对需求的负面影响,以及主要贸易伙伴可能采取的关税回应。”他在上月底警告称,一旦关税推出,铜价可能暴跌。“我们预计这种下降趋势至少在短期内会持续下去。”

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