【中金公司:“对等关税”下美股领跌,“中国资产重估”仍在进行时】金十数据4月7日讯,美国时间4月2日,特朗普“对等关税”政策落地,加征关税的范围和幅度大超此前市场预期,引发全球资产大幅波动。在中金公司看来,本轮全球资产波动的一大特征,是美国资产走弱。以往美国对其它经济体加征关税,资金通常从其它经济体撤出,美股表现好于全球,但是本次美国对全球加征关税,美股反而领跌全球,美元也出现明显下跌,这可能反映的是多层含义:首先,美国作为逆差国,关税大幅加征对于美国而言是一个较大的供给冲击,“滞胀”风险上升;其次,关税加征幅度超出市场预期,并且未来演绎路径不确定性较高,是一个不确定性冲击;最后,此前美股极低的风险溢价隐含过于乐观的预期,关税对于美国基本面前景、全球贸易体系,甚至是货物和资本流动的规则都是较大影响,是一个风险溢价冲击。
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