The Ashley Services Group Limited (ASX:ASH) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 31%. For any long-term shareholders, the last month ends a year to forget by locking in a 53% share price decline.
After such a large drop in price, Ashley Services Group's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 8.9x might make it look like a buy right now compared to the market in Australia, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 17x and even P/E's above 30x are quite common. However, the P/E might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
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For instance, Ashley Services Group's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the disappointing earnings performance to continue or accelerate, which has repressed the P/E. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
Check out our latest analysis for Ashley Services Group
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Ashley Services Group would need to produce sluggish growth that's trailing the market.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 64%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 80% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 27% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.
In light of this, it's understandable that Ashley Services Group's P/E would sit below the majority of other companies. However, we think shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term, which could set up shareholders for future disappointment. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.
Ashley Services Group's recently weak share price has pulled its P/E below most other companies. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
We've established that Ashley Services Group maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its sliding earnings over the medium-term, as expected. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it's hard to see the share price moving strongly in either direction in the near future under these circumstances.
It is also worth noting that we have found 6 warning signs for Ashley Services Group (2 are a bit unpleasant!) that you need to take into consideration.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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