在特朗普的关税政策冲击下,美股大幅回调,多位华尔街策略师下调对标普500指数的年底预测。
其中,摩根大通的看法最悲观,将标普500指数的年底预测从6500点下调至5200点,最差情境假设为4000点。
摩根大通经济团队警告称,在特朗普政府关税政策的重压下,美国实际国内生产总值将出现收缩,经济恐将步入衰退。
Stifel、RBC资本市场、Evercore ISI、美银、高盛、巴克莱、奥本海默对于标普500指数的年底预测均位于6000点下方,介于5500点至5950点之间。
摩根士丹利投资总监Mike Wilson于上周日晚向客户发表报告指出,除非特朗普或美联储出手稳定市场,否则未来仍有下行压力,投资者需准备标指较周五收市再跌7至8%。
另一方面,富国银行、德银的看法最为乐观,预计标普500指数到年底仍有望涨至7000点左右的水平。
BMO资本市场首席投资策略师Brian Belski向客户发表报告时亦强调,我们仍坚信这些征税措施在谈判过后最终会降低叫价,维持标普500指数年底达6700点的目标水平。
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