Energy Fuels Inc. UUUU and Cameco Corporation CCJ are prominent players in the uranium production industry, contributing significantly to the global nuclear energy supply chain. Both companies are currently grappling with declining uranium prices, which have fallen to 18 months low at $64 per pound. Uranium prices have dropped 10.8% year to date due to ample supply against uncertain demand. 

Despite this short-term pressure, the long-term outlook for uranium remains strong, driven by the growing push for clean energy. For investors considering this sector to capitalize on future uranium growth, the main question is — which stock is better positioned to navigate the market challenges? To make an informed decision, let us analyze their fundamentals, growth potential and key challenges.

The Case for Energy Fuels

The company has been the leading U.S. producer of natural uranium concentrate for the past several years. It has produced two-thirds of all uranium in the United States since 2017.

Its White Mesa Mill in Utah remains the only fully licensed and operating conventional uranium processing facility in the United States. The company is working to establish the mill as a critical minerals hub in the United States with its uranium, vanadium, rare earth elements (REE) and potential radioisotope production.

The acquisition of Base Resources Limited in October 2024 gave UUUU access to the promising Toliara Mineral Sand Project, which enhances its potential as a key producer of titanium and zirconium minerals, alongside REEs. 

Energy Fuels’ efforts to grow its REE business have been perceived as risky due to China’s dominance in the market. However, Energy Fuels has the expertise, assets and competitive advantage to hold its ground in the REE market. The increasing push to increase domestic production for uranium and REEs is a major growth opportunity for UUUU.

The company is currently producing from 3 uranium mines. The expected ore production for 2025 is at 730,000-1,170,000 pounds of contained uranium. The company anticipates uranium contract sales of 200,000-300,000 pounds in 2025.

Backed by a debt-free balance sheet, Energy Fuels is ramping up uranium production while developing significant REE capabilities. Taking current production levels and its development pipeline into account, the company has the potential to produce 6 million pounds of uranium per year.

UUUU reported revenues of $78 million in 2024, which marked a 106% year-over-year surge. This was mainly due to the revenue contributions from Heavy Mineral Sands (HMS) following the Base Resources acquisition, while uranium revenues were up 9%. Energy Fuels reported a loss of 28 cents per share for 2024, wider than the loss of 19 cents in 2023. The company has been reporting losses since it started trading on the NYSE in December 2013.

The Case for Cameco

Canada-based Cameco accounted for 16% of global uranium production in 2024. Its operations cover the entire nuclear fuel cycle from exploration to fuel services, which include uranium production, refining, uranium oxide and uranium hexafluoride conversion services, and CANDU fuel manufacturing for heavy water reactors.

CCJ’s 2024 revenues rose 21% year over year to $2.2 billion (CAD $3.14 billion) on higher sales volumes and an improvement in average realized prices. Adjusted earnings per share of 47 cents (CAD 0.67) moved down 24% year over year due to the impacts of purchase accounting related to the Westinghouse acquisition.

Cameco plans to ramp up its tier-one assets, and continue to optimize performance and reliability. The company intends to produce 18 million pounds of uranium (100% basis) at each of McArthur River/Key Lake and Cigar Lake in 2025. CCJ plans to produce between 13 million and 14 million kgU in its fuel services segment in 2025.  CCJ projects uranium deliveries of 31-34 million pounds for 2025.

Production at Inkai was temporarily paused on Jan. 1 due to the delayed submission of certain regulatory documents to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy. Even though production resumed on Jan. 23, CCJ stated that production plans for 2025 and subsequent years remain uncertain. Also, Kazakhstan changed the Mineral Extraction Tax (MET) for uranium from 6% to 9% for 2025. From 2026 onward, the tax will be based on production and spot prices.

The company’s total debt to total capital was 0.17 as of Dec. 31, 2024, lower than the industry’s 0.29. Cameco plans to maintain the financial strength and flexibility necessary to boost production and capitalize on market opportunities. Work is underway to extend the mine life at Cigar Lake to 2036. CCJ is also increasing production at McArthur River and Key Lake to its licensed annual capacity of 25 million pounds (100% basis).

While Canada has dodged the bullet on the recent sweeping tariffs, the U.S. President had earlier threatened the imposition of a 10% tariff on Canadian energy products (which could include uranium). Cameco has proactively taken steps to counter the impacts if it is implemented, and does not expect a material effect on its 2025 results. However, uncertainty remains about whether these tariffs will be applied to uranium products and how they may be implemented.

How Do Estimates Compare for Energy Fuels & Cameco?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Energy Fuel’s 2025 revenues suggests a year-over-year drop of 7.5%. The company is expected to incur a loss of 21 cents per share in 2025, narrsower than the loss of 28 cents reported in 2024. EPS estimates have been trending south over the past 60 days.

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Estimates for 2026, however, depict a better picture. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UUUU’s revenues suggests a year-over-year surge of 149%, with earnings per share pegged at 6 cents, marking the first year of expected profits for the company.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cameco’s 2025 revenues implies year-over-year growth of 11.2%. Even though EPS estimates have been trending south over the past 60 days, the consensus mark suggests a year-over-year upsurge of 114.3%.

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cameco’s 2026 revenues suggest year-over-year growth of 2.7% and earnings per share expected to soar 83%.

UUUU & CCJ: Price Performance & Valuation 

The year-to-date price performances of both Energy Fuels and Cameco have not been impressive, mainly mirroring the trend in uranium prices. UUUU shares have declined 29%, whereas Cameco shares have fallen 20.4%.

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Energy Fuels is trading at a forward price-to-sales multiple of 7.63, below its median of 15.75X over the last three years. CCJ’s forward sales multiple sits at 6.97X, above its median of 7.24X over the last three years.

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Conclusion

Both UUUU and CCJ will face revenue pressure due to a weak uranium price. However, UUUU is expected to remain in the red and return to profitability next year. Both are, meanwhile, ramping up their capabilities to capitalize on the anticipated surge in uranium demand. UUUU’s efforts to diversify beyond uranium into REEs and to create a supply chain independent of China are commendable. For Cameco, the imposition of potential tariffs, the increased MET for uranium in Kazakhstan and uncertainties surrounding Inkai are key concerns.

CCJ appears to be more attractive than UUUU from a valuation standpoint. Cameco also scores over Energy Fuels in terms of price performance. Upwardly revised estimates instill confidence in CCJ. In contrast, UUUU continues to post losses. Given these factors, CCJ is the more appealing option at the moment. While CCJ carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), UUUU currently has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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