美银表示，海螺水泥(00914.HK) 管理层对今年持续盈利复苏乐观，因今年至今温和且连续的价格上调已被证明是捍卫市场份额的成功策略，利润率回升至每吨70元人民币以上。尽管统计数据显示今年首两个月全国水泥需求略有收缩，海螺水泥预计首季销量将增长5%。该行估计海螺水泥今年首季每吨毛利为69元人民币，净利润将按年反弹39%至21亿元人民币。
海螺水泥认为4月份还有进一步提价机会，因华东地区水泥价格仍处相对低位，且江苏沿长江地区袋装水泥已迎来第三轮每吨20人民币涨价，都为第二季每吨水泥毛利逐步改善奠定基础。海螺水泥预计今年第四季可能会出现减值，因将产能配额重新分配到更高效的生产线上。
报告指，海螺水泥预计年内进一步更新管理层激励计划，并指引未来三年股息支付比率超过50%，同时新增中期股息以回报股东。综合上述因素，该行下调对海螺水泥今明两年业绩预测4%及9%，目标价上调8%至27元。另将海螺创业(00586.HK) 目标价上调18%至8.48元。两股评级均为“买入”，而水泥股中该行首选海螺水泥。(fc/j)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-04-03 16:25。)
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.