美银警告,在最坏的情况下,因美国关税及OPEC+意外增产引发商品需求负面冲击,布兰特原油价格可在数周内跌至每桶50美元,该行对布兰特原油今年平均价格每桶70美元的预测正面临风险。
报告指,未来数季供需平衡恶化超过每日100万桶,布兰特原油甚至可能在数周内跌至每桶50美元。
报告认为,美国对进口商品增加关税超预期是负面的供应冲击,对美国消费者和企业来类似油价飙升,关税对世界其他地区也是负面需求冲击。随着成本增加,需求量将下降。报告亦警告,由于贸易战带来不确定性和需求减少,全球经济增长可能从当前估计的3.1%至少减少半个百分点。(fc/w)
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