BlockBeats 消息，4 月 7 日，高盛调整了其对美联储降息的预期，认为如果经济衰退来袭，美联储进一步放宽政策的风险更高。高盛现预计美联储将在 6 月份开始一系列降息——比之前预测的 7 月份要早——作为预防性宽松周期的一部分。
在假设美国避免衰退的基本情况下，美联储将连续三次降息 25 个基点，使联邦基金利率降至 3.5%-3.75% 的区间。不过，高盛预计，如果经济真的陷入衰退，美联储将采取更为激进的政策回应，明年将降息约 200 个基点。
考虑到经济衰退的可能性增加，该机构目前的加权预测显示，2025 年总共将降息 130 个基点，高于此前的 105 个基点。截至上周五收盘，这一前景与当前市场预期基本一致。(金十)
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