MW Trump's tariff war is tanking shipping stocks, but this one stands out for its lack of exposure

By James Rogers

'Tariffs are bad for global trade, and as a consequence not good for shipping,' writes Stifel analyst Benjamin Nolan

President Donald Trump's wide-ranging slew of tariffs sent shipping stocks tumbling this week as uncertainty swirled around global trade. However, one shipping name is well-positioned to sidestep tariffs trouble, according to Stifel.

"Tariffs are bad for global trade, and as a consequence not good for shipping," wrote Stifel analyst Benjamin Nolan, in a note released Thursday. The analyst said that the tariff impact is exacerbated by the U.S. Trade Representative's proposed Section 301 measure, which levies millions of dollars on port calls by ships built in China or companies with ships on order in China.

"Despite the pullback in many of the shipping names, we would remain defensive as the dust settles," added Nolan.

But Houston-based tank barge operator Kirby Corp. $(KEX)$ could avoid the impact of tariffs, according to Stifel. Shares of Kirby, which transports bulk liquid products, are down 5.9% on Friday and have now fallen 17.4% in 2025. Stifel highlighted Kirby as a stock "that should be particularly interesting at current levels given the pullback relative to KEX's virtually complete lack of direct tariff exposure."

Related: These companies tried to dodge China tariffs during Trump's first term. Now they're feeling the burn in Vietnam.

Speaking during a conference call to discuss Kirby's fourth-quarter results earlier this year, the company's CEO, David Grzebinski, said that tariffs are "generally good" for the company. "We're essentially 100% domestic, that would drive more onshoring and more activity in the U.S.," he added, according to a FactSet transcript. "So, we'd probably benefit from that."

The company transports bulk liquid products throughout the Mississippi River system, as well as on the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway. Kirby also operates along all three U.S. coasts.

In theory, the tank barge operator should have almost no exposure to tariffs, according to Stifel, which has a buy rating on the company's stock. "The only derivative impact would be that, if there were a decline in demand for U.S. chemicals, it could reduce domestic barge trade," Nolan added. "Conversely, tariffs on things like steel should simply make the cost of new barges rise, which should create an even greater barrier to entry for new equipment."

Set against the backdrop of Trump's sweeping tariffs and proposed port levies, containers are the most impacted category within shipping, according to Stifel, which noted that the U.S. accounts for about 15% of global container-shipping volumes. "There is simply no silver lining in tariffs or port levies for the container market," Nolan wrote.

Related: Here's how other countries' actual tariff rates compare with Trump's 'reciprocal' rates for them

Shares of Costamare Inc. (CMRE), which leases ships to container-shipping companies and also provides dry bulk vessels for charter, are down 6.5% Friday, while Matson Inc. (MATX), whose fleet includes container ships, is down 3.3%. Stifel has hold rating for both stocks.

In the dry bulk market, the U.S. is a relatively smaller player, particularly with regard to imports, according to Stifel. "However, to the extent that demand for finished goods softens, it could impact raw materials like iron ore and coal imports into other markets that use them for manufactured goods into the U.S.," wrote Nolan. On the export side, any retaliatory tariffs would be much more impactful as the U.S. exported 308 million tons in 2024, with more than 200 million tons being coal and grain products, the analyst added.

New York City-based dry bulk ship owner Genco Shipping and Trading Ltd. $(GNK)$ is down 7% and Star Bulk Carriers Corp. (SBLK) is down 8.6%. Stifel has hold ratings on the two stocks.

With regard to tankers and gas, Stifel said refined products such as liquefied natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas are likely to be used as bargaining chips, and volumes are unlikely to be impacted. "However, if there is an economic downturn, it could impact the underlying demand for those commodities," added Nolan.

From the archives (January 2025): Tariffs, Trump and China: What 2025 holds for shipping stocks

Ardmore Shipping Corp. $(ASC)$, which owns and operates tankers, is down 3.7% Friday, while crude-oil tanker stocks DHT Holdings Inc. $(DHT)$ and International Seaways Inc. are down 7.8% and 10.3%, respectively. Shares of Scorpio Tankers Inc. (STNG), which transports refined petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and naphtha, and has a stake in DHT, are down 10%. Stifel has hold ratings on Ardmore, DHT, International Seaways and Scorpio Tankers.

Gas-shipping stocks Capital Clean Energy Carriers Corp. (CCEC), Dynagas LNG Partners LP (DLNG) and Navigator Holdings Ltd. (NVGS) are down 7.3%, 4.3% and 12.4%, respectively. Stifel maintained its buy rating on those stocks.

-James Rogers

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April 04, 2025 12:51 ET (16:51 GMT)

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