巴克莱经济学家Marc Giannini和Jonathan Millar在报告中写道，鉴于通胀预测上调，该行调整了对美联储2026年政策的预测，如今预计明年只会降息两次，每次25个基点，而之前预测的是降息三次。他们仍然预计今年会进行两次25个基点的降息，时间分别在6月和9月，不过“认为这条利率路径尤为不确定”。

　　他们写道，“由于我们上修了通胀预测，且通胀预期存在升高风险，我们不再认为美联储将有条件在2026年3月降息。”他们预计美联储分别在明年6月和9月降息，前提是“联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）观察到月度通胀数据出现明显改善”。

　　经济学家写道，对今年通胀预测的上调和对GDP增速的下调是基于美国政府本周宣布的关税措施。

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