By Mackenzie Tatananni

Rigetti Computing, Quantinuum, and IonQ were among the companies chosen by the U.S. government to participate in a multi-year program assessing the viability of quantum computing.

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, a research arm of the U.S. Department of Defense, unveiled the 15 finalists for its Quantum Benchmarking Initiative on Thursday. The list ranges from smaller pure-plays to established industry giants like International Business Machines and Hewlett Packard Enterprise.

The QBI program aims to determine whether any quantum-computing approach can achieve utility-scale operation by 2033. In simpler terms, it means reaching a point in which computational value exceeds the cost to build and operate the technology.

DARPA is examining a variety of quantum architectures including trapped-ion systems and superconducting qubits. In 2024, the government agency said it aimed to move quantum computing "from hype to prototype."

DARPA arrived at its final decision following a review of written abstracts and oral presentations before a team of quantum experts. The finalists will have their hands full over the next six months, which QBI program manager Joe Altepeter has described as a "sprint." The companies must prove not only that their concepts hold up scientifically, but that they could lead to the production of a "transformative, fault-tolerant quantum computer" in under a decade.

Government-backed programs are "critical for advancing quantum computing technology," Rigetti CEO Subodh Kulkarni told Barron's. "The stakes for enabling fault-tolerant quantum computing before our adversaries are very high, particularly in the area of encryption and decryption," he added.

The project is particularly significant for Rigetti, as the company moves steadily through its research and development phase. The relationship with DARPA stretches back to 2022.

Kulkarni sees federal support as a necessity as competition ramps. Just last month, the Chinese government announced the launch of a $138 billion fund to support emerging technology, including quantum.

"Given how much investment other governments are supposedly investing in quantum computing, it is critical the U.S. government continues to support QBI and similar initiatives," Kulkarni said.

Companies that complete the first stage of the QBI program will progress to a yearlong second stage, during which DARPA will examine their R&D approaches. In the third and final stage, an independent team will test each company's hardware and determine whether it seems promising.

While investors may be waiting for quantum companies to turn a profit, it is crucial to acknowledge that research and development are cornerstones of quantum computing. Quantinuum CEO Rajeeb Hazra told Barron's that more than $1.7 billion has been poured into the company to date, beginning even before Honeywell Quantum Solutions and Cambridge Quantum merged to produce Quantinuum.

Over the last three years, investments have gone "primarily into roadmap acceleration," Hazra said. In addition to the QBI project, the company is partnering with Nvidia on a quantum research facility, where scientists will integrate quantum technology with AI-powered supercomputers.

IonQ is perhaps more aspirational than its peers. Former CEO Peter Chapman asserted in January that IonQ would be profitable by 2030 with sales approaching $1 billion. Chapman, now serving as executive chair, didn't make any similar promises on the company's earnings call a month later.

While IonQ emphaszies that it has "brought quantum computing out of the lab and into the real world," the company continues to support research efforts, most recently delivering a quantum networking system optimized for R&D to the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory.

Quantum computing may not be widely accessible for years to come, but the acceleration of development and explosion of interest over the past year alone is a sign that milestone could be on the horizon.

Write to Mackenzie Tatananni at mackenzie.tatananni@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

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April 04, 2025 12:18 ET (16:18 GMT)

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