金吾财讯 | 黄金股全线飘红，中国白银集团(00815)涨4.21%，招金矿业(01818)涨3.95%，紫金矿业(02899)涨3.75%，集海资源(02489)涨3.75%，山东黄金(01787)涨2.34%，灵宝黄金(03330)涨1.12%。中邮证券报告指出，如果关税不再有回旋余地，长端美债利率预计走向上行区间，可能本周即为底部，关税实施对于美债买盘来说是不可逆的永久性伤害。黄金的配置价值在这个不确定的时代应当得到凸显，如果中国采取汇率贬值的方式来对冲关税影响，沪金可能在2025年冲至900元/g以上。短期来看，流动性的冲击仍未消退，美国垃圾债的下跌幅度远远超过24年日元套息交易逆转时的跌幅，等待市场进一步企稳时择机做多黄金。华龙证券报告指出，若美对其他国家关税如期落地，各种上游原材料及中游制成品成本上升带来的输入性通胀将推高美国通胀水平，美国经济走向滞胀的可能性增加。尽管3月美非农就业数据超预期，但鲍威尔在讲话中对特朗普关税政策的影响持悲观态度，并表示调整货币政策为时尚早，市场预期的降息节奏或进一步放缓。长期来看，高关税带来的高通胀和经济放缓不可避免，黄金在此背景下向上确定性更强。
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